{"wallet":"0x3fe6c2550d2d7ee62b141d15a78c03380493cdc6","displayName":"SeekingFreedom","pseudonym":"Simple-Register","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":5573.21,"totalPnl":3174.99,"realizedPnl":1684.26,"unrealizedPnl":1490.73,"winRate":0.408,"openPositions":10,"resolvedBets":196,"uniqueMarkets":53},"calibration":48,"profitability":100,"consistency":11,"discipline":80,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":60,"trustScore":58,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":196,"description":"C/58 [CI95: C→C, 56-60] (196 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":56,"scoreHigh":60,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06635,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.06635,"error":0.43365},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13135000000000002,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.13135000000000002,"error":0.36865},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2528692307692308,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.3076923076923077,"expectedRate":0.2528692307692308,"error":0.05482307692307692},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3544133333333334,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.4666666666666667,"expectedRate":0.3544133333333334,"error":0.11225333333333326},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46308,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.46308,"error":0.26308},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5557117647058822,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.35294117647058826,"expectedRate":0.5557117647058822,"error":0.20277058823529398},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6529333333333334,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.6529333333333334,"error":0.25293333333333334},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7564230769230769,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":14,"actualRate":0.5384615384615384,"expectedRate":0.7564230769230769,"error":0.21796153846153843},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8506499999999999,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.75,"expectedRate":0.8506499999999999,"error":0.1006499999999999},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9391999999999999,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.9391999999999999,"error":0.6058666666666666}],"brierScore":0.2827,"calibrationError":0.2095,"resolvedBets":196,"overconfidenceBias":0.0951,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":37.2,"luck":100,"edge":-14.26},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0575,"resolution":0.0147,"uncertainty":0.2416},"brierSkillScore":-0.1701,"logLoss":0.7994,"logLossSkill":-0.1822,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x3fe6c2550d2d7ee62b141d15a78c03380493cdc6","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776099689,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-13","walletAgeDays":15,"totalTransactions":2078,"uniqueCounterparties":33,"inboundTxCount":78,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":37768.81,"totalUsdcOut":34424.83,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":78,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.13,"medianTxIntervalSec":2286,"burstTxCount":13,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 15 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2078 txs","Significant USDC flow: $72,194","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 33 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T06:24:18.972Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":168.99,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x3fe6c2550d2d7ee62b141d15a78c03380493cdc6","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":337.15,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":31,"largestWithdrawal":45.45,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-14","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T06:24:14.319Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 15 days, 2078 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $337 in / $0 out across 31 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-14.","3100 total trades across 53 markets.","196 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 20.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 37/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -17.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0575 RES=0.0147 UNC=0.2416.","Log loss: 0.7994 (skill: -18.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -17.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","young_wallet: Wallet is only 13 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$3175 total PnL","Well-diversified: 53 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T06:24:21.022Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 13 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":13}}