{"wallet":"0x43f584fcb5e9debd0db1ff03d7ab3eb4981140d0","displayName":"Trader 0x43f584...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":844,"totalVolume":6088.05,"totalPnl":-317.5,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-317.5,"winRate":0.124,"openPositions":60,"resolvedBets":259,"uniqueMarkets":806},"calibration":20,"profitability":30,"consistency":89,"discipline":99,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":28,"trustScore":50,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":259,"description":"C/50 ± 3 (high confidence, 259 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3708108108108107,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":9,"actualRate":0.24324324324324326,"expectedRate":0.3708108108108107,"error":0.12756756756756743},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4217923223544776,"totalBets":199,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.06030150753768844,"expectedRate":0.4217923223544776,"error":0.3614908148167892},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5646153846153846,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.46153846153846156,"expectedRate":0.5646153846153846,"error":0.10307692307692307},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6125,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.625,"expectedRate":0.6125,"error":0.012499999999999956},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.83,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.83,"error":0.83},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.99}],"brierScore":0.1998,"calibrationError":0.3086,"resolvedBets":259,"overconfidenceBias":0.3078,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":26,"luck":21.7,"edge":-100.36},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1097,"resolution":0.0187,"uncertainty":0.1083},"brierSkillScore":-0.8449,"logLoss":0.6018,"logLossSkill":-0.6094,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":5.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":6}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x43f584fcb5e9debd0db1ff03d7ab3eb4981140d0","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771604574,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-20","walletAgeDays":58,"totalTransactions":2288,"uniqueCounterparties":7,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":832,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"500.000000","netEthFlow":"-500.000000","usdcTransfers":1402,"totalUsdcIn":7118.1,"totalUsdcOut":6878.59,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":54,"contractInteractions":831,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.76,"medianTxIntervalSec":26,"burstTxCount":92,"provenanceScore":65,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Possible automated trading: 92 burst txs","Counterparty concentration: 76% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2288 txs","Significant USDC flow: $13,997"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:11.340Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":557.01,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 58 days, 2288 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","844 total trades across 806 markets.","259 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 30.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 26/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -84.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1097 RES=0.0187 UNC=0.1083.","Log loss: 0.6018 (skill: -60.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 5.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.308","Brier Skill Score: -84.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$317 total PnL","Low win rate: 12%","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1998","Well-diversified: 806 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:15.623Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}