{"wallet":"0x47138dc1eef25f1ea91f3b2fda0e0f455c634d21","displayName":"dsknadkasnkfjs","pseudonym":"Overjoyed-Limo","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":32158.17,"totalPnl":-179.19,"realizedPnl":20.2,"unrealizedPnl":-199.39,"winRate":0,"openPositions":24,"resolvedBets":101,"uniqueMarkets":108},"calibration":2,"profitability":39,"consistency":65,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":33,"trustScore":42,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":101,"description":"D/42 [CI95: D→D, 39-45] (101 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":39,"scoreHigh":45,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05888888888888877,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05888888888888877,"error":0.05888888888888877},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1459521435692921,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1459521435692921,"error":0.1459521435692921},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35545701395396867,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35545701395396867,"error":0.35545701395396867},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44490420449999046,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44490420449999046,"error":0.44490420449999046},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5619642237633785,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5619642237633785,"error":0.5619642237633785},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6429625839947196,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6429625839947196,"error":0.6429625839947196},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7469066700395177,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7469066700395177,"error":0.7469066700395177},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8520905220472258,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8520905220472258,"error":0.8520905220472258},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9551938654796037,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9551938654796037,"error":0.9551938654796037}],"brierScore":0.4817,"calibrationError":0.6598,"resolvedBets":101,"overconfidenceBias":0.6598,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":36.8,"edge":-75.77},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4809,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.9266,"logLoss":1.4767,"logLossSkill":-185.7566,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x47138dc1eef25f1ea91f3b2fda0e0f455c634d21","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770286987,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-05","walletAgeDays":89,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":3707.67,"totalUsdcOut":3638.99,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":51,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T08:37:03.325Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":247.87,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x47138dc1eef25f1ea91f3b2fda0e0f455c634d21","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2095.52,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":76,"largestWithdrawal":136.32,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-05","fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T08:37:03.031Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 89 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,096 in / $0 out across 76 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-05.","3100 total trades across 108 markets.","101 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 66.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 37/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -92.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4809 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.4767 (skill: -18575.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4817","Overconfidence bias: 0.660","Brier Skill Score: -92.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$179 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 108 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-06T08:37:10.234Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.34069268862858,"reason":"Wallet age 89d → difficulty factor 0.34","ageDaysUsed":89}}