{"wallet":"0x476639d9845d7a0261cb005dae6473f089ff5a03","displayName":"slip-me","pseudonym":"Novel-Morbid","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":34749.87,"totalPnl":649.24,"realizedPnl":822.28,"unrealizedPnl":-173.04,"winRate":0.007,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":141,"uniqueMarkets":135},"calibration":5,"profitability":44,"consistency":73,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":21,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":141,"description":"D/38 [CI95: D→D, 37-39] (141 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":37,"scoreHigh":39,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15,"error":0.15},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2535763857223024,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2535763857223024,"error":0.2535763857223024},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3640918484349797,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3640918484349797,"error":0.3640918484349797},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44443579811791695,"totalBets":64,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44443579811791695,"error":0.44443579811791695},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5380318821376607,"totalBets":23,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5380318821376607,"error":0.5380318821376607},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.62793625,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.62793625,"error":0.62793625},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.78295,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.78295,"error":0.78295},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.010000000000000009}],"brierScore":0.1976,"calibrationError":0.4316,"resolvedBets":141,"overconfidenceBias":0.4315,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":9.3,"luck":16.1,"edge":-127.35},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1969,"resolution":0.007,"uncertainty":0.007},"brierSkillScore":-27.0608,"logLoss":0.5841,"logLossSkill":-12.8521,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x476639d9845d7a0261cb005dae6473f089ff5a03","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774443787,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-25","walletAgeDays":50,"totalTransactions":2998,"uniqueCounterparties":6,"inboundTxCount":998,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":49857.27,"totalUsdcOut":44917.66,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":998,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":298,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2998 txs","Significant USDC flow: $94,775","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-15T08:37:28.629Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":4290.37,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x476639d9845d7a0261cb005dae6473f089ff5a03","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":39891.34,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":17,"largestWithdrawal":6860.07,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-25","fetchedAt":"2026-05-15T08:37:28.526Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 50 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,891 in / $0 out across 17 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-25.","3100 total trades across 135 markets.","141 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 43.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 9/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -2706.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1969 RES=0.0070 UNC=0.0070.","Log loss: 0.5841 (skill: -1285.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.431","Brier Skill Score: -2706.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Low win rate: 1%"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1976","Net profitable: +$649 total PnL","Well-diversified: 135 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $39,891 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 17 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-15T08:37:35.491Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.16004075363353298,"reason":"Wallet age 50d → difficulty factor 0.16","ageDaysUsed":50}}