{"wallet":"0x4a355011ef438a9c53a636f15b763812754ce7e5","displayName":"Harsh-Sanctity","pseudonym":"Harsh-Sanctity","raw":{"totalTrades":2756,"totalVolume":7284.77,"totalPnl":-109.94,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-109.94,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":493,"uniqueMarkets":947},"calibration":5,"profitability":37,"consistency":63,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":493,"description":"D/36 ± 3 (high confidence, 493 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06329468287838524,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06329468287838524,"error":0.06329468287838524},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15209329345390654,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15209329345390654,"error":0.15209329345390654},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2706071195978422,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2706071195978422,"error":0.2706071195978422},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3548829505076916,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3548829505076916,"error":0.3548829505076916},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4624467661912865,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4624467661912865,"error":0.4624467661912865},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.550923284480798,"totalBets":71,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.550923284480798,"error":0.550923284480798},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6510967891520303,"totalBets":82,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6510967891520303,"error":0.6510967891520303},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7449507402504725,"totalBets":91,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7449507402504725,"error":0.7449507402504725},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8475435998277117,"totalBets":69,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8475435998277117,"error":0.8475435998277117},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9527994868227048,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9527994868227048,"error":0.9527994868227048}],"brierScore":0.4623,"calibrationError":0.6482,"resolvedBets":493,"overconfidenceBias":0.6482,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":21.7,"edge":-36.87},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4615,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8494,"logLoss":1.324,"logLossSkill":-166.4468,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4a355011ef438a9c53a636f15b763812754ce7e5","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775037395,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2290,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":290,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5644.56,"totalUsdcOut":5401.51,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":290,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.86,"medianTxIntervalSec":1524,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 86% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2290 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,046","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:59.347Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":352.99,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x4a355011ef438a9c53a636f15b763812754ce7e5","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4708.46,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":191,"largestWithdrawal":101.16,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:58.623Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2290 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,708 in / $0 out across 191 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","2756 total trades across 947 markets.","493 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -84.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4615 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.3240 (skill: -16644.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4623","Overconfidence bias: 0.648","Brier Skill Score: -84.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$110 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wash trading signal — 86% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 947 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:04.871Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}