{"wallet":"0x4d40c3f3627f64591eac428cd4248c651a9c398d","displayName":"fj3fwasjnk3t4","pseudonym":"Curly-Enthusiasm","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3831.55,"totalPnl":-5090.46,"realizedPnl":-1254.32,"unrealizedPnl":-3836.14,"winRate":0.004,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":176},"calibration":0,"profitability":0,"consistency":82,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/35 [CI95: D→D, 35-35] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":35,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1870666666666667,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1870666666666667,"error":0.1870666666666667},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.264093023255814,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.264093023255814,"error":0.264093023255814},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3481785714285711,"totalBets":168,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3481785714285711,"error":0.3481785714285711},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44986034482758624,"totalBets":232,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44986034482758624,"error":0.44986034482758624},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5398796747967478,"totalBets":246,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.016260162601626018,"expectedRate":0.5398796747967478,"error":0.5236195121951218},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6488142857142858,"totalBets":168,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6488142857142858,"error":0.6488142857142858},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7415043478260865,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7415043478260865,"error":0.7415043478260865},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8101,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8101,"error":0.8101}],"brierScore":0.2686,"calibrationError":0.4943,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4943,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.7,"luck":100,"edge":-44.37},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2636,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0.004},"brierSkillScore":-66.4212,"logLoss":0.7346,"logLossSkill":-27.1699,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4d40c3f3627f64591eac428cd4248c651a9c398d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774609049,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-27","walletAgeDays":81,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":7488.11,"totalUsdcOut":5964.28,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $13,452","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:39:03.022Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":6614.29,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x4d40c3f3627f64591eac428cd4248c651a9c398d","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3670.04,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":4800,"withdrawalTxCount":15,"largestWithdrawal":311.57,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-27","fetchedAt":"2026-06-17T10:39:03.354Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 81 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,670 in / $4,800 out across 15 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-27.","3100 total trades across 176 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -6642.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2636 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0040.","Log loss: 0.7346 (skill: -2717.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.494","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -6642.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$5090 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $6614 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 176 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-17T10:39:10.167Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.31118400272972335,"reason":"Wallet age 81d → difficulty factor 0.31","ageDaysUsed":81}}