{"wallet":"0x4eafc4a19144b6a3bbbae465b1b9ccde34291769","displayName":"PetroSePareceAUnCalculoRenal","pseudonym":"Watchful-Taxicab","raw":{"totalTrades":607,"totalVolume":1088.53,"totalPnl":-70.31,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-70.31,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":45,"uniqueMarkets":297},"calibration":66,"profitability":27,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":45,"description":"D/41 ± 15 (low confidence, 45 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06697560868604158,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06697560868604158,"error":0.06697560868604158},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15802002595004383,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15802002595004383,"error":0.15802002595004383},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25380815338270435,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25380815338270435,"error":0.25380815338270435},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3618269404034294,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3618269404034294,"error":0.3618269404034294},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4489828474599068,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4489828474599068,"error":0.4489828474599068},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5224889860713218,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5224889860713218,"error":0.5224889860713218},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6599500648000415,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6599500648000415,"error":0.6599500648000415},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8800001008000161,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8800001008000161,"error":0.8800001008000161}],"brierScore":0.1561,"calibrationError":0.3567,"resolvedBets":45,"overconfidenceBias":0.3567,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":17.2,"luck":19.5,"edge":-144.49},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1554,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.3757,"logLoss":0.4889,"logLossSkill":-60.8348,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4eafc4a19144b6a3bbbae465b1b9ccde34291769","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772590923,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-04","walletAgeDays":46,"totalTransactions":907,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":907,"totalUsdcIn":613.87,"totalUsdcOut":602.73,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 907 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:14.555Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":81.45,"pnlVerified":true},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 46 days, 907 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","607 total trades across 297 markets.","45 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 35.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 37.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1554 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.4889 (skill: -6083.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.4 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.357","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1561","Brier Skill Score: 37.6% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 297 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:16.821Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}