{"wallet":"0x4f77be59e16ea2734b1e2118379d02ac321d47f4","displayName":"Trader 0x4f77be...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":1145,"totalVolume":26167.01,"totalPnl":-10559.86,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-10559.86,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":32,"uniqueMarkets":32},"calibration":18,"profitability":0,"consistency":65,"discipline":48,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":28,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":32,"description":"F/28 [CI95: F→F, 24-32] (32 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":24,"scoreHigh":32,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1437516520880096,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1437516520880096,"error":0.1437516520880096},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.22859484481828662,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.22859484481828662,"error":0.22859484481828662},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3877585282344683,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3877585282344683,"error":0.3877585282344683},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.469278586921521,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.469278586921521,"error":0.469278586921521},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5641544040900479,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5641544040900479,"error":0.5641544040900479},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6473941076362986,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6473941076362986,"error":0.6473941076362986},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7314650282736807,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7314650282736807,"error":0.7314650282736807},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8190234158878487,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8190234158878487,"error":0.8190234158878487},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.98,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.98,"error":0.98}],"brierScore":0.3485,"calibrationError":0.56,"resolvedBets":32,"overconfidenceBias":0.56,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16,"edge":-59.23},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3478,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.3939,"logLoss":0.9633,"logLossSkill":-120.8223,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4f77be59e16ea2734b1e2118379d02ac321d47f4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777411552,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-28","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":1550,"uniqueCounterparties":11,"inboundTxCount":12,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":12,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.17,"medianTxIntervalSec":1294,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 1550 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 11 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T12:29:09.120Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x4f77be59e16ea2734b1e2118379d02ac321d47f4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T12:29:09.009Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 1550 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","1145 total trades across 32 markets.","32 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 56.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -39.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3478 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9633 (skill: -12082.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.560","Brier Skill Score: -39.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$10560 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 32 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T12:29:11.048Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}