{"wallet":"0x4f861888aeb2082bddd1aa66b7866c860d32ef4e","displayName":"tradingis","pseudonym":"Likable-Advertisement","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":8547.12,"totalPnl":-15.59,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-15.59,"winRate":0.024,"openPositions":14,"resolvedBets":82,"uniqueMarkets":89},"calibration":1,"profitability":40,"consistency":52,"discipline":88,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":48,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":82,"description":"D/37 [CI95: F→D, 34-39] (82 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":34,"scoreHigh":39,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.022533334616404666,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.022533334616404666,"error":0.022533334616404666},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14249519009012998,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.14249519009012998,"error":0.19083814324320333},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25823988003399884,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25823988003399884,"error":0.25823988003399884},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3601445611390138,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3601445611390138,"error":0.3601445611390138},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44872511418835503,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44872511418835503,"error":0.44872511418835503},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5517242843270774,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5517242843270774,"error":0.5517242843270774},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.653605112601898,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.653605112601898,"error":0.653605112601898},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.753414313467023,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.753414313467023,"error":0.6105571706098802},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8296580119459217,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8296580119459217,"error":0.8296580119459217},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.951186406785499,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.951186406785499,"error":0.951186406785499}],"brierScore":0.3013,"calibrationError":0.4913,"resolvedBets":82,"overconfidenceBias":0.4773,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":1.9,"luck":28.2,"edge":-80.04},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2824,"resolution":0.0052,"uncertainty":0.0238},"brierSkillScore":-11.661,"logLoss":0.8681,"logLossSkill":-6.571,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4f861888aeb2082bddd1aa66b7866c860d32ef4e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775879453,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-11","walletAgeDays":16,"totalTransactions":2925,"uniqueCounterparties":31,"inboundTxCount":925,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":11309.07,"totalUsdcOut":11041.3,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":925,"botScore":60,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.36,"medianTxIntervalSec":10,"burstTxCount":234,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 16 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 234 burst txs, median interval 10s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2925 txs","Significant USDC flow: $22,350"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T12:38:47.543Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":283.36,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x4f861888aeb2082bddd1aa66b7866c860d32ef4e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":8680,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":26,"largestWithdrawal":1656.59,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-11","fetchedAt":"2026-04-27T12:38:47.228Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 16 days, 2925 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,680 in / $0 out across 26 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.","3100 total trades across 89 markets.","82 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1166.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2824 RES=0.0052 UNC=0.0238.","Log loss: 0.8681 (skill: -657.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.477","Brier Skill Score: -1166.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 2%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 14 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 89 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-27T12:38:54.118Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 14 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":14}}