{"wallet":"0x4f92d073d8c3ef4b3379e5820e11d631ce83db0d","displayName":"Extraneous-Clinic","pseudonym":"Extraneous-Clinic","raw":{"totalTrades":186,"totalVolume":2808.24,"totalPnl":-746.67,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-746.67,"winRate":0.032,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":95,"uniqueMarkets":133},"calibration":13,"profitability":0,"consistency":68,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":34,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":95,"description":"F/34 ± 8 (medium confidence, 95 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04480288540903583,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.04480288540903583,"error":0.04480288540903583},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14550948312750983,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.125,"expectedRate":0.14550948312750983,"error":0.02050948312750983},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24355978176903753,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24355978176903753,"error":0.24355978176903753},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3572791827490682,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.05,"expectedRate":0.3572791827490682,"error":0.30727918274906824},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.448341537553022,"totalBets":23,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.448341537553022,"error":0.448341537553022},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.552000011914001,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.552000011914001,"error":0.552000011914001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6340000136360013,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6340000136360013,"error":0.6340000136360013},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7668184386055519,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.7668184386055519,"error":0.2668184386055519},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8750000588000094,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8750000588000094,"error":0.8750000588000094},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9846824019030285,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9846824019030285,"error":0.9846824019030285}],"brierScore":0.1888,"calibrationError":0.3324,"resolvedBets":95,"overconfidenceBias":0.3324,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":21.1,"luck":40.6,"edge":-22.81},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1624,"resolution":0.0061,"uncertainty":0.0306},"brierSkillScore":-5.1722,"logLoss":0.6155,"logLossSkill":-3.3904,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":28.3,"earlyMoverPct":0.791,"timelinessScore":60}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x4f92d073d8c3ef4b3379e5820e11d631ce83db0d","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1762185059,"firstTxDate":"2025-11-03","walletAgeDays":167,"totalTransactions":269,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":267,"totalUsdcIn":2340.91,"totalUsdcOut":2320.44,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Active on-chain: 269 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:44.846Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":767.14,"pnlVerified":false},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 167 days, 269 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","186 total trades across 133 markets.","95 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 33.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 21/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 41/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -517.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1624 RES=0.0061 UNC=0.0306.","Log loss: 0.6155 (skill: -339.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 28.3 days before resolution, 79% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.332","Brier Skill Score: -517.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$747 total PnL","Low win rate: 3%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $767 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1888","Early mover: avg 28 days before resolution","Well-diversified: 133 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T02:06:46.842Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}