{"wallet":"0x510ae1a69ea3fa6f95027157128c25563508d77f","displayName":"u936","pseudonym":"Sentimental-Differential","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17820.75,"totalPnl":-16492.95,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-16492.95,"winRate":0,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":290,"uniqueMarkets":106},"calibration":26,"profitability":0,"consistency":94,"discipline":79,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":13,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":290,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-37] (290 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":37,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17142,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17142,"error":0.17142},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24816428571428578,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24816428571428578,"error":0.24816428571428578},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34497142857142854,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34497142857142854,"error":0.34497142857142854},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4483583333333332,"totalBets":72,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4483583333333332,"error":0.4483583333333332},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5503160000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5503160000000001,"error":0.5503160000000001},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6441409090909089,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6441409090909089,"error":0.6441409090909089},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7524785714285714,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7524785714285714,"error":0.7524785714285714},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.834557142857143,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.834557142857143,"error":0.834557142857143},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.99}],"brierScore":0.2851,"calibrationError":0.5035,"resolvedBets":290,"overconfidenceBias":0.5035,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":17.1,"edge":-89.84},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2843,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1404,"logLoss":0.7933,"logLossSkill":-99.3296,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x510ae1a69ea3fa6f95027157128c25563508d77f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777218190,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-26","walletAgeDays":13,"totalTransactions":2335,"uniqueCounterparties":115,"inboundTxCount":335,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":13253.22,"totalUsdcOut":12476.01,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":335,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.03,"medianTxIntervalSec":294,"burstTxCount":2,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 13 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2335 txs","Diverse counterparties: 115 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $25,729","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 115 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T23:04:23.593Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":17270.16,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x510ae1a69ea3fa6f95027157128c25563508d77f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T23:05:25.724Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 2335 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 106 markets.","290 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 50.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -14.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2843 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7933 (skill: -9933.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.503","Brier Skill Score: -14.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$16493 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $17270 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 13 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 106 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T23:05:25.924Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 13 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":13}}