{"wallet":"0x550b973fefcffa5b9a1513b8ff932782dfa75b52","displayName":"Trader 0x550b97...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":613,"totalVolume":1349.17,"totalPnl":-0.04,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-0.04,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":42,"uniqueMarkets":82},"calibration":17,"profitability":40,"consistency":57,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":50,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":42,"description":"D/39 ± 15 (low confidence, 42 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16175912211431276,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.16175912211431276,"error":0.16175912211431276},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2800001078211837,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2800001078211837,"error":0.2800001078211837},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.37813866983006567,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.37813866983006567,"error":0.37813866983006567},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45243716877562545,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45243716877562545,"error":0.45243716877562545},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5405716716071166,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5405716716071166,"error":0.5405716716071166},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6619978809158702,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6619978809158702,"error":0.6619978809158702},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7376167087385983,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7376167087385983,"error":0.7376167087385983},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8095688742446238,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8095688742446238,"error":0.8095688742446238},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9400052693213167,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9400052693213167,"error":0.9400052693213167}],"brierScore":0.3548,"calibrationError":0.568,"resolvedBets":42,"overconfidenceBias":0.568,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":27.9,"edge":-26.39},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3541,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.4191,"logLoss":0.9838,"logLossSkill":-123.4141,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x550b973fefcffa5b9a1513b8ff932782dfa75b52","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776621976,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-19","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":2021,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":426,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1593,"totalUsdcIn":921.61,"totalUsdcOut":917.87,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":426,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":149,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 149 burst txs, median interval 8s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2021 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:52.422Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3.78,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x550b973fefcffa5b9a1513b8ff932782dfa75b52","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":41.48,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":19,"largestWithdrawal":8.82,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:52.331Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 2021 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $41 in / $0 out across 19 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-19.","613 total trades across 82 markets.","42 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 56.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -41.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3541 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9838 (skill: -12341.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3548","Overconfidence bias: 0.568","Brier Skill Score: -41.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 82 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:39:53.426Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}