{"wallet":"0x5540d34e4f110b09159a10b5196829a3a5c7fbf4","displayName":"Inborn-Seagull","pseudonym":"Inborn-Seagull","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":62866.27,"totalPnl":-86396.41,"realizedPnl":-0.49,"unrealizedPnl":-86395.92,"winRate":0,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":314,"uniqueMarkets":255},"calibration":21,"profitability":0,"consistency":86,"discipline":82,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":0,"trustScore":32,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":314,"description":"F/32 ± 3 (high confidence, 314 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05914999999999998,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05914999999999998,"error":0.05914999999999998},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1570083333333334,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1570083333333334,"error":0.1570083333333334},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2496649999999999,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2496649999999999,"error":0.2496649999999999},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3512133333333333,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3512133333333333,"error":0.3512133333333333},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4507300000000002,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4507300000000002,"error":0.4507300000000002},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5564428571428571,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5564428571428571,"error":0.5564428571428571},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.649608695652174,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.649608695652174,"error":0.649608695652174},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7464421052631578,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7464421052631578,"error":0.7464421052631578},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8462466666666668,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8462466666666668,"error":0.8462466666666668},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9580333333333334,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9580333333333334,"error":0.9580333333333334}],"brierScore":0.3226,"calibrationError":0.5144,"resolvedBets":314,"overconfidenceBias":0.5144,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.6,"edge":-91.25},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3218,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2903,"logLoss":0.9148,"logLossSkill":-114.6946,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x5540d34e4f110b09159a10b5196829a3a5c7fbf4","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775225695,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-03","walletAgeDays":16,"totalTransactions":2893,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":893,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":62103.56,"totalUsdcOut":45564.79,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":893,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":8,"burstTxCount":333,"provenanceScore":66,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 16 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 333 burst txs, median interval 8s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2893 txs","Significant USDC flow: $107,668","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:34.621Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":102935.18,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x5540d34e4f110b09159a10b5196829a3a5c7fbf4","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":25776.98,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":260,"largestWithdrawal":1089.7,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-04","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:32.191Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 16 days, 2893 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $25,777 in / $0 out across 260 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-04.","3100 total trades across 255 markets.","314 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.4% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -29.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3218 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.9148 (skill: -11469.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.514","Brier Skill Score: -29.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$86396 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $102935 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 255 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $25,777 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 260 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:38.866Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}