{"wallet":"0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839","displayName":"Theo4","pseudonym":"Ironclad-Tenement","raw":{"totalTrades":803,"totalVolume":11166537.98,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0.929,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":14,"uniqueMarkets":14},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":100,"discipline":21,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":14,"description":"D/37 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 14 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05360692750904461,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.05360692750904461,"error":0.9463930724909554},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3656859820712144,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.3656859820712144,"error":0.6343140179287856},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44607840987909847,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.75,"expectedRate":0.44607840987909847,"error":0.30392159012090153},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5620371572123287,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.5620371572123287,"error":0.4379628427876713},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6098130610179464,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6098130610179464,"error":0.3901869389820536}],"brierScore":0.3714,"calibrationError":0.5216,"resolvedBets":14,"overconfidenceBias":-0.5216,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":2,"luck":33.8,"edge":100.22},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3185,"resolution":0.0128,"uncertainty":0.0663},"brierSkillScore":-4.6001,"logLoss":1.0825,"logLossSkill":-3.2069,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":547.7,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1728918618,"firstTxDate":"2024-10-14","walletAgeDays":553,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":4074612.73,"totalUsdcOut":3246705.07,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":71,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 553 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $7,321,318","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:33:42.003Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T06:33:36.448Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 553 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","803 total trades across 14 markets.","14 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 52.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 2/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -460.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3185 RES=0.0128 UNC=0.0663.","Log loss: 1.0825 (skill: -320.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 547.7 days before resolution, 100% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3714","Brier Skill Score: -460.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Early mover: avg 548 days before resolution","Strong win rate: 93%","On-chain: 553-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T06:33:42.005Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776753222005}