{"wallet":"0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318","displayName":"balthazar","pseudonym":"Sparse-Cookie","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":85209.94,"totalPnl":749701.22,"realizedPnl":920961.59,"unrealizedPnl":-171260.37,"winRate":0.016,"openPositions":132,"resolvedBets":868,"uniqueMarkets":442},"calibration":56,"profitability":100,"consistency":50,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":67,"trustScore":44,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":868,"description":"D/44 ± 3 (high confidence, 868 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.014760196560196432,"totalBets":814,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.009828009828009828,"expectedRate":0.014760196560196432,"error":0.004932186732186605},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15667142857142857,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.14285714285714285,"expectedRate":0.15667142857142857,"error":0.013814285714285723},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.267,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.267,"error":0.733},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3728,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3728,"error":0.3728},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4479222222222222,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4479222222222222,"error":0.4479222222222222},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.5},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6272,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6272,"error":0.3728},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9048,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9048,"error":0.9048}],"brierScore":0.0222,"calibrationError":0.0271,"resolvedBets":868,"overconfidenceBias":0.022,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":57.5,"luck":100,"edge":-83.28},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0115,"resolution":0.0048,"uncertainty":0.0159},"brierSkillScore":-0.3982,"logLoss":0.0836,"logLossSkill":-0.0123,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1738945704,"firstTxDate":"2025-02-07","walletAgeDays":436,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1994,"totalUsdcIn":18591.3,"totalUsdcOut":13105.83,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":6,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 436 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $31,697","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:19.639Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":744215.75,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":756.23,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":8301,"withdrawalTxCount":10,"largestWithdrawal":233.09,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-04-10","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:15.820Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 436 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $756 in / $8,301 out across 10 withdrawal tx since 2025-04-10.","3100 total trades across 442 markets.","868 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 2.7% — excellent.","Skill: 58/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -39.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0115 RES=0.0048 UNC=0.0159.","Log loss: 0.0836 (skill: -1.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -39.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Penny-lottery strategy: 94% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Low win rate: 2%","PnL divergence: $744216 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0222","Net profitable: +$749701 total PnL","Well-diversified: 442 unique markets","On-chain: 436-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:21.962Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}