{"wallet":"0x5bc331ff6a2f3a679f0c98cca0d92cdda5c47a59","displayName":"Trader 0x5bc331...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":26171.82,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":188,"uniqueMarkets":196},"calibration":55,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":188,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 38-40] (188 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05560338408653611,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05560338408653611,"error":0.05560338408653611},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14860300216637953,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14860300216637953,"error":0.14860300216637953},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2502169190738561,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2502169190738561,"error":0.2502169190738561},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34761232612042753,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34761232612042753,"error":0.34761232612042753},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4518808419518959,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4518808419518959,"error":0.4518808419518959},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.537866919663995,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.537866919663995,"error":0.537866919663995},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6494275321680808,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6494275321680808,"error":0.6494275321680808},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7432518607589073,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7432518607589073,"error":0.7432518607589073},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8001903830614538,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8001903830614538,"error":0.8001903830614538}],"brierScore":0.2075,"calibrationError":0.4092,"resolvedBets":188,"overconfidenceBias":0.4092,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":10.9,"luck":30.4,"edge":-146.82},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2067,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.17,"logLoss":0.594,"logLossSkill":-74.116,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x5bc331ff6a2f3a679f0c98cca0d92cdda5c47a59","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771449934,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-18","walletAgeDays":72,"totalTransactions":2719,"uniqueCounterparties":54,"inboundTxCount":719,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":8442.89,"totalUsdcOut":8421.39,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":719,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.29,"medianTxIntervalSec":284,"burstTxCount":4,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2719 txs","Diverse counterparties: 54 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $16,864","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 54 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T09:35:49.530Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x5bc331ff6a2f3a679f0c98cca0d92cdda5c47a59","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5066.37,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":114,"largestWithdrawal":416.43,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-19","fetchedAt":"2026-05-02T09:38:52.523Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 72 days, 2719 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,066 in / $0 out across 114 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-19.","3100 total trades across 196 markets.","188 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 40.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 11/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 30/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 17.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2067 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5940 (skill: -7411.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.409","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Brier Skill Score: 17.0% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 196 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-02T09:38:52.806Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.2699009238928405,"reason":"Wallet age 71d → difficulty factor 0.27","ageDaysUsed":71}}