{"wallet":"0x5cddbac7f3d37c0bb9d33bae7cb6f3f6d254d068","displayName":"Cercaphus","pseudonym":"Mushy-Carrot","raw":{"totalTrades":34,"totalVolume":166.92,"totalPnl":0.03,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0.03,"winRate":0.71,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":31,"uniqueMarkets":34},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":3,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":60,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":0,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"low","margin":15,"resolvedBets":31,"description":"F/0 ± 15 (low confidence, 31 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000002,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":16,"actualRate":0.64,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000002,"error":0.63},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9900000000000001,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9900000000000001,"error":0.009999999999999898}],"brierScore":0.5059,"calibrationError":0.51,"resolvedBets":31,"overconfidenceBias":-0.51,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.2,"luck":31.4,"edge":-110.07},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3201,"resolution":0.0202,"uncertainty":0.206},"brierSkillScore":-1.4554,"logLoss":2.3817,"logLossSkill":-2.9535,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":7.7,"earlyMoverPct":0.037,"timelinessScore":9}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x5cddbac7f3d37c0bb9d33bae7cb6f3f6d254d068","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772705301,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-05","walletAgeDays":45,"totalTransactions":2495,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":495,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1979,"totalUsdcIn":4955.07,"totalUsdcOut":4923.96,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":23,"contractInteractions":495,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":4560,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2495 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:22.046Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":31.08,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x5cddbac7f3d37c0bb9d33bae7cb6f3f6d254d068","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3189.65,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":639,"largestWithdrawal":5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-05","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:20.735Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 45 days, 2495 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,190 in / $0 out across 639 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-05.","34 total trades across 34 markets.","31 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 31/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -145.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3201 RES=0.0202 UNC=0.2060.","Log loss: 2.3817 (skill: -295.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 7.7 days before resolution, 4% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.5059","Brier Skill Score: -145.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 81% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 639 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 31 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Net profitable: +$0 total PnL","Strong win rate: 71%","Well-diversified: 34 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:22.339Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}