{"wallet":"0x5e83967ea7c218b1e6012796c3fedf209c2db598","displayName":"cryptomoneygc8","pseudonym":"Even-Map","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":9186.32,"totalPnl":134.08,"realizedPnl":240.46,"unrealizedPnl":-106.39,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":19,"uniqueMarkets":19},"calibration":28,"profitability":43,"consistency":80,"discipline":29,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":42,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":19,"description":"D/42 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 19 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3665144907950989,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3665144907950989,"error":0.3665144907950989},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4483113664313037,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4483113664313037,"error":0.4483113664313037},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5332499927299573,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5332499927299573,"error":0.5332499927299573},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6437356256137968,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6437356256137968,"error":0.6437356256137968}],"brierScore":0.2694,"calibrationError":0.512,"resolvedBets":19,"overconfidenceBias":0.512,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":7.7,"edge":-87.17},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2687,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0774,"logLoss":0.734,"logLossSkill":-91.8209,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x5e83967ea7c218b1e6012796c3fedf209c2db598","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770636013,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-09","walletAgeDays":71,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":2631.71,"totalUsdcOut":2390.37,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":51,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T03:32:22.755Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":107.26,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x5e83967ea7c218b1e6012796c3fedf209c2db598","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1053.5,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":189,"largestWithdrawal":69.35,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-13","fetchedAt":"2026-04-22T03:32:21.611Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 71 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,054 in / $0 out across 189 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-13.","3100 total trades across 19 markets.","19 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 8/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -7.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2687 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7340 (skill: -9182.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.512","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain coverage gap: 189 Polymarket USDC withdrawals observed, but only 19 resolved bets recovered from data-api + CLOB. Grade based on a subset of the wallet's forecasting history."],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$134 total PnL","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-22T03:32:28.005Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}