{"wallet":"0x606345eae7b751b245279beb27cee847cb1b2705","displayName":"BobThePnlBuilder","pseudonym":"Grounded-Skull","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":14766.91,"totalPnl":-20507.6,"realizedPnl":12725.99,"unrealizedPnl":-33233.59,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":122},"calibration":27,"profitability":0,"consistency":78,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/36 [CI95: D→D, 35-37] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":37,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.0798,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.0798,"error":0.0798},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1593285714285714,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1593285714285714,"error":0.1593285714285714},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.262378431372549,"totalBets":102,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.262378431372549,"error":0.262378431372549},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34551022727272723,"totalBets":176,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34551022727272723,"error":0.34551022727272723},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.43586321839080455,"totalBets":174,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.43586321839080455,"error":0.43586321839080455},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5550697674418609,"totalBets":172,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5550697674418609,"error":0.5550697674418609},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.649269318181818,"totalBets":176,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.649269318181818,"error":0.649269318181818},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.737541935483871,"totalBets":124,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.737541935483871,"error":0.737541935483871},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8581692307692308,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8581692307692308,"error":0.8581692307692308},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9045,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9045,"error":0.9045}],"brierScore":0.2783,"calibrationError":0.4959,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.4959,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.5,"luck":21.5,"edge":-73.97},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2776,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1133,"logLoss":0.7606,"logLossSkill":-95.1943,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x606345eae7b751b245279beb27cee847cb1b2705","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774870994,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":29,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":3,"inboundTxCount":1000,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":10771.58,"totalUsdcOut":5692.72,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":1000,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":1,"medianTxIntervalSec":894,"burstTxCount":5,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 29 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 100% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $16,464","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T08:22:17.147Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":25586.46,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x606345eae7b751b245279beb27cee847cb1b2705","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":5474.4,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":114,"largestWithdrawal":162.82,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-31","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T08:22:15.724Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 29 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $5,474 in / $0 out across 114 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.","3100 total trades across 122 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -11.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2776 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7606 (skill: -9519.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.496","Brier Skill Score: -11.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$20508 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $25586 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: wash trading signal — 100% of txs with single counterparty","young_wallet: Wallet is only 28 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 122 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T08:22:22.879Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 28 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":28}}