{"wallet":"0x61fe216bf5c2db4db24cc60c608ede9141506403","displayName":"trecns","pseudonym":"Scared-Lecture","raw":{"totalTrades":1602,"totalVolume":4367.92,"totalPnl":-76.61,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-76.61,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":256,"uniqueMarkets":285},"calibration":7,"profitability":36,"consistency":66,"discipline":75,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":52,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":256,"description":"C/52 ± 3 (high confidence, 256 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13175630326964102,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13175630326964102,"error":0.13175630326964102},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26054928429943164,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26054928429943164,"error":0.26054928429943164},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3510224037134423,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3510224037134423,"error":0.3510224037134423},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45923269704362707,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45923269704362707,"error":0.45923269704362707},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5567758336459642,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5567758336459642,"error":0.5567758336459642},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6446168700440889,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6446168700440889,"error":0.6446168700440889},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7412086738363275,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7412086738363275,"error":0.7412086738363275},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.84941262394269,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.84941262394269,"error":0.84941262394269},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9415039076969841,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9415039076969841,"error":0.9415039076969841}],"brierScore":0.4379,"calibrationError":0.6332,"resolvedBets":256,"overconfidenceBias":0.6332,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":16.4,"edge":-44.14},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4372,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.7517,"logLoss":1.1875,"logLossSkill":-149.1821,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x61fe216bf5c2db4db24cc60c608ede9141506403","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776304318,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":4,"totalTransactions":2041,"uniqueCounterparties":2,"inboundTxCount":41,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5576.42,"totalUsdcOut":4988.21,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":41,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.98,"medianTxIntervalSec":3132,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":43,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 4 days old — possible sybil","Limited counterparties: only 2 unique addresses","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2041 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,565","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:09.325Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":664.82,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x61fe216bf5c2db4db24cc60c608ede9141506403","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2924.92,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":114,"largestWithdrawal":135.87,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:09.441Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 4 days, 2041 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,925 in / $0 out across 114 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","1602 total trades across 285 markets.","256 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 63.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -75.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4372 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1875 (skill: -14918.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4379","Overconfidence bias: 0.633","Brier Skill Score: -75.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 4 days old on Polygon","On-chain: wash trading signal — 98% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 285 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:18:12.705Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}