{"wallet":"0x645a91730f588c5586e8860936a7e3554303fd84","displayName":"nobtc","pseudonym":"Portly-Begonia","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3113.03,"totalPnl":-33663.81,"realizedPnl":6592.32,"unrealizedPnl":-40256.13,"winRate":0,"openPositions":244,"resolvedBets":94,"uniqueMarkets":42},"calibration":25,"profitability":0,"consistency":37,"discipline":100,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":53,"trustScore":40,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":94,"description":"D/40 [CI95: D→D, 38-42] (94 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23722500000000002,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.23722500000000002,"error":0.23722500000000002},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3489499999999999,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3489499999999999,"error":0.3489499999999999},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4677199999999999,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4677199999999999,"error":0.4677199999999999},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5511454545454545,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5511454545454545,"error":0.5511454545454545},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6438,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6438,"error":0.6438},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7221714285714286,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7221714285714286,"error":0.7221714285714286},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9701,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9701,"error":0.9701}],"brierScore":0.2904,"calibrationError":0.5121,"resolvedBets":94,"overconfidenceBias":0.5121,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":12,"edge":-77.4},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2897,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1615,"logLoss":0.8082,"logLossSkill":-101.2059,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x645a91730f588c5586e8860936a7e3554303fd84","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770544089,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-08","walletAgeDays":129,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":4704.55,"totalUsdcOut":4704.38,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T07:51:47.452Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":33663.98,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x645a91730f588c5586e8860936a7e3554303fd84","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":7.44,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":3,"largestWithdrawal":5,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-13","fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T07:53:48.451Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 129 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $7 in / $0 out across 3 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-13.","3100 total trades across 42 markets.","94 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 12/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -16.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2897 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8082 (skill: -10120.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.512","Brier Skill Score: -16.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$33664 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $33664 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 42 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-18T07:53:48.850Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.37087305264243225,"reason":"Wallet age 98d → difficulty factor 0.37","ageDaysUsed":98}}