{"wallet":"0x64c768851b3e6f58bafd1332b5a1ef1d8cb0985f","displayName":"stnwl","pseudonym":"Tired-Departure","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":2788.18,"totalPnl":-298.62,"realizedPnl":24.85,"unrealizedPnl":-323.48,"winRate":0.1,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":351,"uniqueMarkets":530},"calibration":4,"profitability":19,"consistency":60,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":32,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":351,"description":"F/32 ± 3 (high confidence, 351 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03828750000000001,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.15,"expectedRate":0.03828750000000001,"error":0.11171249999999999},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14024999999999999,"totalBets":12,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.14024999999999999,"error":0.02641666666666667},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25307939189633133,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.25307939189633133,"error":0.15307939189633132},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3556019630078,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.08823529411764706,"expectedRate":0.3556019630078,"error":0.2673666688901529},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4559889047486595,"totalBets":63,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.047619047619047616,"expectedRate":0.4559889047486595,"error":0.4083698571296119},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5428941917233654,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.017857142857142856,"expectedRate":0.5428941917233654,"error":0.5250370488662225},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6430830123392056,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.08823529411764706,"expectedRate":0.6430830123392056,"error":0.5548477182215585},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.74698307687251,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.05263157894736842,"expectedRate":0.74698307687251,"error":0.6943514979251415},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8547171383350176,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.11764705882352941,"expectedRate":0.8547171383350176,"error":0.7370700795114882},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9640376504248537,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":12,"actualRate":0.21428571428571427,"expectedRate":0.9640376504248537,"error":0.7497519361391394}],"brierScore":0.3425,"calibrationError":0.452,"resolvedBets":351,"overconfidenceBias":0.4247,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":6.4,"luck":27.9,"edge":-6.76},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2555,"resolution":0.0043,"uncertainty":0.0898},"brierSkillScore":-2.8155,"logLoss":1.0968,"logLossSkill":-2.3804,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.2,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x64c768851b3e6f58bafd1332b5a1ef1d8cb0985f","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1768878002,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-20","walletAgeDays":90,"totalTransactions":2228,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":228,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1997,"totalUsdcIn":1104.84,"totalUsdcOut":1007.17,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":228,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.06,"medianTxIntervalSec":4,"burstTxCount":144,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 144 burst txs, median interval 4s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2228 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:00.822Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":396.29,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x64c768851b3e6f58bafd1332b5a1ef1d8cb0985f","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":113.8,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":21,"largestWithdrawal":90.01,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-20","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:00.430Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 90 days, 2228 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $114 in / $0 out across 21 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-20.","3100 total trades across 530 markets.","351 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 45.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 28/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -281.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2555 RES=0.0043 UNC=0.0898.","Log loss: 1.0968 (skill: -238.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.2 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.425","Brier Skill Score: -281.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$299 total PnL","Low win rate: 10%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 530 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:17:06.432Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}