{"wallet":"0x665fddd41f1c64d76247bc26ab55617af1eddbb1","displayName":"Honest-Wax","pseudonym":"Honest-Wax","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3205.79,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":172,"uniqueMarkets":172},"calibration":5,"profitability":40,"consistency":64,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":172,"description":"D/36 [CI95: F→D, 34-38] (172 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":34,"scoreHigh":38,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.010000000000000009,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.010000000000000009,"error":0.010000000000000009},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13186415479157643,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13186415479157643,"error":0.13186415479157643},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2474514864745465,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2474514864745465,"error":0.2474514864745465},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3652673780267723,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3652673780267723,"error":0.3652673780267723},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.456899643750306,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.456899643750306,"error":0.456899643750306},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5475620728712156,"totalBets":37,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5475620728712156,"error":0.5475620728712156},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6353323076440867,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6353323076440867,"error":0.6353323076440867},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.75435468113979,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.75435468113979,"error":0.75435468113979},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8462994029893438,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8462994029893438,"error":0.8462994029893438},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9425127066576705,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9425127066576705,"error":0.9425127066576705}],"brierScore":0.4604,"calibrationError":0.6478,"resolvedBets":172,"overconfidenceBias":0.6478,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":17.9,"edge":-30.01},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4596,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8415,"logLoss":1.2984,"logLossSkill":-163.204,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x665fddd41f1c64d76247bc26ab55617af1eddbb1","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1772976479,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-08","walletAgeDays":47,"totalTransactions":2979,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":979,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":1471.42,"totalUsdcOut":1279.89,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":979,"botScore":60,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":16,"burstTxCount":227,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 227 burst txs, median interval 16s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2979 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:33:12.217Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x665fddd41f1c64d76247bc26ab55617af1eddbb1","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1271.42,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":127,"largestWithdrawal":56.74,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-08","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:33:44.234Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 47 days, 2979 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,271 in / $0 out across 127 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-08.","3100 total trades across 172 markets.","172 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 18/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -84.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4596 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.2984 (skill: -16320.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.1 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4604","Overconfidence bias: 0.648","Brier Skill Score: -84.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 172 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T06:33:44.239Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.14065530039527058,"reason":"Wallet age 47d → difficulty factor 0.14","ageDaysUsed":47}}