{"wallet":"0x6743b0c87309618d498e1747442f6ba995c034d0","displayName":"tweetybirddd","pseudonym":"Insignificant-Fund","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":7827.28,"totalPnl":-19616.4,"realizedPnl":-15.13,"unrealizedPnl":-19601.27,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":1000,"uniqueMarkets":451},"calibration":13,"profitability":0,"consistency":60,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":1000,"description":"D/35 [CI95: F→D, 34-36] (1000 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":34,"scoreHigh":36,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.047113157894736794,"totalBets":152,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.047113157894736794,"error":0.047113157894736794},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15074444444444438,"totalBets":90,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15074444444444438,"error":0.15074444444444438},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2523243243243243,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2523243243243243,"error":0.2523243243243243},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3499179487179486,"totalBets":78,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3499179487179486,"error":0.3499179487179486},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4516137931034484,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4516137931034484,"error":0.4516137931034484},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5577793103448275,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5577793103448275,"error":0.5577793103448275},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.652854347826087,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.652854347826087,"error":0.652854347826087},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7508684210526315,"totalBets":114,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7508684210526315,"error":0.7508684210526315},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8544437500000002,"totalBets":128,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8544437500000002,"error":0.8544437500000002},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9588858974358967,"totalBets":156,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9588858974358967,"error":0.9588858974358967}],"brierScore":0.3877,"calibrationError":0.5299,"resolvedBets":1000,"overconfidenceBias":0.5299,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":15.7,"edge":-34.52},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3869,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.5506,"logLoss":1.1977,"logLossSkill":-150.4641,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x6743b0c87309618d498e1747442f6ba995c034d0","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771232931,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-16","walletAgeDays":67,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":10503.1,"totalUsdcOut":10224.88,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $20,728","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T10:31:07.438Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":19894.62,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x6743b0c87309618d498e1747442f6ba995c034d0","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":9201.58,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":319,"largestWithdrawal":247.95,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-21","fetchedAt":"2026-04-24T10:41:09.730Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 67 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $9,202 in / $0 out across 319 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-21.","3100 total trades across 451 markets.","1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 53.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -55.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3869 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1977 (skill: -15046.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.3877","Overconfidence bias: 0.530","Brier Skill Score: -55.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$19616 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $19895 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 451 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-24T10:41:15.039Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.1472512958148734,"reason":"Wallet age 48d → difficulty factor 0.15","ageDaysUsed":48}}