{"wallet":"0x69ea43f5e12520cdce227962f2774e988fa720ce","displayName":"bober-kurva","pseudonym":"Staid-Swordfight","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3015.83,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":191,"uniqueMarkets":191},"calibration":65,"profitability":40,"consistency":83,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":59,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":191,"description":"C/59 ± 8 (medium confidence, 191 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2925168534156981,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2925168534156981,"error":0.2925168534156981},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3610921617792411,"totalBets":144,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3610921617792411,"error":0.3610921617792411},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4259102632048666,"totalBets":43,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4259102632048666,"error":0.4259102632048666},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5700001720001032,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5700001720001032,"error":0.5700001720001032},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6959783547017451,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6959783547017451,"error":0.6959783547017451}],"brierScore":0.1449,"calibrationError":0.3778,"resolvedBets":191,"overconfidenceBias":0.3778,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":14.7,"luck":13.5,"edge":-160.33},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1443,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.4204,"logLoss":0.4778,"logLossSkill":-59.4197,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x69ea43f5e12520cdce227962f2774e988fa720ce","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1770565587,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-08","walletAgeDays":72,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":2264.37,"totalUsdcOut":2064.65,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":48,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:30:58.002Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x69ea43f5e12520cdce227962f2774e988fa720ce","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1642.44,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":115,"largestWithdrawal":71.83,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-10","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T21:31:04.676Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 72 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,642 in / $0 out across 115 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-10.","3100 total trades across 191 markets.","191 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 37.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 42.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1443 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.4778 (skill: -5942.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.378","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1449","Brier Skill Score: 42.0% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 191 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T21:31:05.050Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}