{"wallet":"0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee","displayName":"kch123","pseudonym":"Aggravating-Grin","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":13508420.26,"totalPnl":-2911690.88,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-2911690.88,"winRate":0.013,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":520,"uniqueMarkets":536},"calibration":10,"profitability":0,"consistency":24,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":24,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":520,"description":"F/24 [CI95: F→F, 23-25] (520 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":23,"scoreHigh":25,"gradeLow":"F","gradeHigh":"F","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05726837420168971,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.03125,"expectedRate":0.05726837420168971,"error":0.02601837420168971},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16145706514578623,"totalBets":47,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.0425531914893617,"expectedRate":0.16145706514578623,"error":0.11890387365642452},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24937542571246257,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.02857142857142857,"expectedRate":0.24937542571246257,"error":0.220803997141034},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34777076691508857,"totalBets":101,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34777076691508857,"error":0.34777076691508857},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4623039971045203,"totalBets":129,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4623039971045203,"error":0.4623039971045203},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.538523482307724,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.538523482307724,"error":0.538523482307724},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6487804674515911,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6487804674515911,"error":0.6487804674515911},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7300872603661563,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2857142857142857,"expectedRate":0.7300872603661563,"error":0.44437297465187064},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8292452499815894,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8292452499815894,"error":0.8292452499815894}],"brierScore":0.1836,"calibrationError":0.376,"resolvedBets":520,"overconfidenceBias":0.376,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":15.1,"luck":45.6,"edge":-117.7},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1704,"resolution":0.0013,"uncertainty":0.0133},"brierSkillScore":-12.8227,"logLoss":0.5467,"logLossSkill":-6.6606,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":80.3,"earlyMoverPct":0.982,"timelinessScore":99}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1750712037,"firstTxDate":"2025-06-23","walletAgeDays":362,"totalTransactions":2897,"uniqueCounterparties":33,"inboundTxCount":897,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1990,"totalUsdcIn":1273151.54,"totalUsdcOut":1120270.04,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":12,"contractInteractions":897,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.08,"medianTxIntervalSec":2798,"burstTxCount":85,"provenanceScore":78,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 362 days","Heavy on-chain activity: 2897 txs","Significant USDC flow: $2,393,422","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 33 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-21T09:23:30.863Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3064572.38,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x6a72f61820b26b1fe4d956e17b6dc2a1ea3033ee","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":773804.12,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":65,"largestWithdrawal":110657.74,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-06-26","fetchedAt":"2026-06-21T09:23:30.883Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 362 days, 2897 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $773,804 in / $0 out across 65 withdrawal tx since 2025-06-26.","3100 total trades across 536 markets.","520 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 37.6% — needs improvement.","Skill: 15/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 46/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1282.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1704 RES=0.0013 UNC=0.0133.","Log loss: 0.5467 (skill: -666.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 80.3 days before resolution, 98% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.376","Brier Skill Score: -1282.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$2911691 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $3064572 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1836","Early mover: avg 80 days before resolution","Well-diversified: 536 unique markets","On-chain: 362-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $773,804 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 65 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-21T09:23:31.225Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.7785168058116629,"reason":"Wallet age 360d → difficulty factor 0.78","ageDaysUsed":360},"cached":true,"cachedAt":1782033811876}