{"wallet":"0x6a95d162c25f68045b853f170c2618b13dce3be6","displayName":"Trader 0x6a95d1...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":20115.51,"totalPnl":-4,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-4,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":135,"uniqueMarkets":212},"calibration":80,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":45,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":135,"description":"D/45 [CI95: D→D, 44-46] (135 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":44,"scoreHigh":46,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06086469505300092,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06086469505300092,"error":0.06086469505300092},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14433429253922628,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14433429253922628,"error":0.14433429253922628},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24705996812264877,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24705996812264877,"error":0.24705996812264877},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3376360915119791,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3376360915119791,"error":0.3376360915119791},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4711967569219335,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4711967569219335,"error":0.4711967569219335},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5362238584017164,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5362238584017164,"error":0.5362238584017164},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6615478152232244,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6615478152232244,"error":0.6615478152232244},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7300205951481674,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7300205951481674,"error":0.7300205951481674}],"brierScore":0.0728,"calibrationError":0.2177,"resolvedBets":135,"overconfidenceBias":0.2177,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":33.9,"luck":57.4,"edge":-222.69},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0722,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.7087,"logLoss":0.2749,"logLossSkill":-33.7684,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.8,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x6a95d162c25f68045b853f170c2618b13dce3be6","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1777260334,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-27","walletAgeDays":6,"totalTransactions":2989,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":989,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":1985.79,"totalUsdcOut":1887.96,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":989,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":425,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 6 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 425 burst txs, median interval 6s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2989 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-03T10:52:52.622Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":101.83,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x6a95d162c25f68045b853f170c2618b13dce3be6","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1596.77,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":84,"largestWithdrawal":89.91,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-27","fetchedAt":"2026-05-03T10:53:05.929Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 6 days, 2989 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,597 in / $0 out across 84 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-27.","3100 total trades across 212 markets.","135 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 21.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 34/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 57/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 70.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0722 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.2749 (skill: -3376.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.218","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: wallet only 6 days old on Polygon","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 6 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0728","Brier Skill Score: 70.9% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 212 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-03T10:53:06.028Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 6 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":6}}