{"wallet":"0x6af38120a15db32547861c005bcf3265921f8ab2","displayName":"zzz-zzz","pseudonym":"Insistent-Reclamation-Set","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17726.56,"totalPnl":-304.21,"realizedPnl":51.68,"unrealizedPnl":-355.89,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":124,"uniqueMarkets":114},"calibration":26,"profitability":37,"consistency":65,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":40,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":124,"description":"D/40 [CI95: D→D, 39-41] (124 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":39,"scoreHigh":41,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1766008014012199,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1766008014012199,"error":0.1766008014012199},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26907930979242084,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26907930979242084,"error":0.26907930979242084},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36434829794816864,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36434829794816864,"error":0.36434829794816864},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45051314030765804,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45051314030765804,"error":0.45051314030765804},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5577076756489726,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5577076756489726,"error":0.5577076756489726},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.627334731253333,"totalBets":29,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.627334731253333,"error":0.627334731253333},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.75087053203617,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.75087053203617,"error":0.75087053203617},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8659126363525845,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8659126363525845,"error":0.8659126363525845},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.96,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.96,"error":0.96}],"brierScore":0.2837,"calibrationError":0.5174,"resolvedBets":124,"overconfidenceBias":0.5174,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":21,"edge":-101.12},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2829,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1346,"logLoss":0.7739,"logLossSkill":-96.8715,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":2.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":3}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x6af38120a15db32547861c005bcf3265921f8ab2","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775656263,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-08","walletAgeDays":16,"totalTransactions":2089,"uniqueCounterparties":28,"inboundTxCount":89,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":12612.49,"totalUsdcOut":11690.06,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":89,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.07,"medianTxIntervalSec":230,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 16 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2089 txs","Significant USDC flow: $24,303","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 28 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:32.425Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1226.64,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x6af38120a15db32547861c005bcf3265921f8ab2","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":6173.18,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":37,"largestWithdrawal":500.3,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:40.259Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 16 days, 2089 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,173 in / $0 out across 37 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","3100 total trades across 114 markets.","124 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 51.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -13.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2829 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7739 (skill: -9687.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 2.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.517","Brier Skill Score: -13.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$304 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 6 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 114 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T10:48:40.269Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 6 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":6}}