{"wallet":"0x707aaf0e84d19766b66b5ca45b55660c551dec10","displayName":"53jumqry00pw","pseudonym":"Married-Ray","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3501.72,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":196,"uniqueMarkets":196},"calibration":10,"profitability":40,"consistency":61,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":196,"description":"D/37 [CI95: D→D, 35-39] (196 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":39,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05005021993693598,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05005021993693598,"error":0.05005021993693598},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1733721641997592,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1733721641997592,"error":0.1733721641997592},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2620988797560535,"totalBets":11,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2620988797560535,"error":0.2620988797560535},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3561837216138319,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3561837216138319,"error":0.3561837216138319},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4587454118365483,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4587454118365483,"error":0.4587454118365483},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5550639935439187,"totalBets":42,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5550639935439187,"error":0.5550639935439187},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6361356444874418,"totalBets":31,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6361356444874418,"error":0.6361356444874418},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7648528345482765,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7648528345482765,"error":0.7648528345482765},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8526225332132334,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8526225332132334,"error":0.8526225332132334},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9343321399085903,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9343321399085903,"error":0.9343321399085903}],"brierScore":0.4155,"calibrationError":0.6109,"resolvedBets":196,"overconfidenceBias":0.6109,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":13,"edge":-37.42},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4147,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.6619,"logLoss":1.1481,"logLossSkill":-144.1997,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x707aaf0e84d19766b66b5ca45b55660c551dec10","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1773237191,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-11","walletAgeDays":44,"totalTransactions":2576,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":576,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":1435.36,"totalUsdcOut":1062.1,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":576,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":4,"burstTxCount":346,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 346 burst txs, median interval 4s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2576 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:28:56.233Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x707aaf0e84d19766b66b5ca45b55660c551dec10","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1008.86,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":33,"largestWithdrawal":82.97,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-17","fetchedAt":"2026-04-25T06:36:09.519Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 44 days, 2576 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,009 in / $0 out across 33 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.","3100 total trades across 196 markets.","196 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 61.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 13/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -66.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4147 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1481 (skill: -14420.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.3 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4155","Overconfidence bias: 0.611","Brier Skill Score: -66.2% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 196 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-25T06:36:16.127Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}