{"wallet":"0x708a7bf01fe9669102b3a2f60b7ff0bd6d3365a9","displayName":"Quizzical-Capon","pseudonym":"Quizzical-Capon","raw":{"totalTrades":2696,"totalVolume":7001.91,"totalPnl":255.38,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":255.38,"winRate":0,"openPositions":4,"resolvedBets":489,"uniqueMarkets":950},"calibration":5,"profitability":47,"consistency":62,"discipline":85,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":100,"trustScore":53,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":489,"description":"C/53 ± 3 (high confidence, 489 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06046493647693638,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06046493647693638,"error":0.06046493647693638},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14769820547867668,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14769820547867668,"error":0.14769820547867668},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26966331814776284,"totalBets":15,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26966331814776284,"error":0.26966331814776284},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35486947511429084,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35486947511429084,"error":0.35486947511429084},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45602697022138844,"totalBets":61,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45602697022138844,"error":0.45602697022138844},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5528613087897375,"totalBets":68,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5528613087897375,"error":0.5528613087897375},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6498651207629806,"totalBets":83,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6498651207629806,"error":0.6498651207629806},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7435369761485917,"totalBets":92,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7435369761485917,"error":0.7435369761485917},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.853088727800268,"totalBets":65,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.853088727800268,"error":0.853088727800268},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.952696839396679,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.952696839396679,"error":0.952696839396679}],"brierScore":0.4609,"calibrationError":0.6468,"resolvedBets":489,"overconfidenceBias":0.6468,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":21.9,"edge":-36.28},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4601,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.8437,"logLoss":1.3234,"logLossSkill":-166.3665,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":4}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x708a7bf01fe9669102b3a2f60b7ff0bd6d3365a9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775037401,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-01","walletAgeDays":18,"totalTransactions":2287,"uniqueCounterparties":4,"inboundTxCount":287,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":5726.48,"totalUsdcOut":5404.88,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":287,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":80,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.85,"medianTxIntervalSec":1552,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 18 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Wash trading signal: 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2287 txs","Significant USDC flow: $11,131","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:24.220Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":66.22,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x708a7bf01fe9669102b3a2f60b7ff0bd6d3365a9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4920.98,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":200,"largestWithdrawal":99.73,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-01","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:24.322Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 18 days, 2287 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,921 in / $0 out across 200 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.","2696 total trades across 950 markets.","489 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 64.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -84.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4601 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.3234 (skill: -16636.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4609","Overconfidence bias: 0.647","Brier Skill Score: -84.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wash trading signal — 85% of txs with single counterparty"],"greenFlags":["Strong live edge: 4 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$255 total PnL","Well-diversified: 950 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:15:31.624Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}