{"wallet":"0x717ba8a0faa5f1f5d5230bb00f688ce55a8158b3","displayName":"asdfsadfz","pseudonym":"Loud-Grandfather","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":16164.14,"totalPnl":-594.3,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-594.3,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":268,"uniqueMarkets":248},"calibration":22,"profitability":33,"consistency":74,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":41,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":268,"description":"D/41 [CI95: D→D, 40-42] (268 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":40,"scoreHigh":42,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.020000000000000018,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.020000000000000018,"error":0.020000000000000018},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1525000000000001,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1525000000000001,"error":0.1525000000000001},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26554134386497175,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26554134386497175,"error":0.26554134386497175},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.36327163679351404,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.36327163679351404,"error":0.36327163679351404},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4591204975803934,"totalBets":77,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4591204975803934,"error":0.4591204975803934},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5448455270828985,"totalBets":83,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5448455270828985,"error":0.5448455270828985},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6386713043517764,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6386713043517764,"error":0.6386713043517764},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.744122428718516,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.744122428718516,"error":0.744122428718516},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8508483276366369,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8508483276366369,"error":0.8508483276366369},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.91013477465395,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.91013477465395,"error":0.91013477465395}],"brierScore":0.3162,"calibrationError":0.542,"resolvedBets":268,"overconfidenceBias":0.542,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":41.2,"edge":-95.59},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3154,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.2647,"logLoss":0.8556,"logLossSkill":-107.2045,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":3.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":3}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x717ba8a0faa5f1f5d5230bb00f688ce55a8158b3","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775909191,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-11","walletAgeDays":67,"totalTransactions":2137,"uniqueCounterparties":61,"inboundTxCount":137,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1037,"totalUsdcIn":6858.79,"totalUsdcOut":6858.79,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":15,"contractInteractions":137,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":902,"burstTxCount":7,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2137 txs","Diverse counterparties: 61 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $13,718","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 61 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T08:08:48.261Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":594.3,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x717ba8a0faa5f1f5d5230bb00f688ce55a8158b3","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1644.46,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":56,"largestWithdrawal":112.44,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-11","fetchedAt":"2026-06-18T08:08:47.869Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 67 days, 2137 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,644 in / $0 out across 56 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-11.","3100 total trades across 248 markets.","268 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 54.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 41/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -26.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3154 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8556 (skill: -10720.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 3.4 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.542","Brier Skill Score: -26.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$594 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 248 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-18T08:08:55.476Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.23738157421126602,"reason":"Wallet age 64d → difficulty factor 0.24","ageDaysUsed":64}}