{"wallet":"0x71fa0acc436ecdc9c36d007060d559604a44da19","displayName":"leocm","pseudonym":"Impish-Hype","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":5234.94,"totalPnl":-10414.04,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-10414.04,"winRate":0.175,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":824,"uniqueMarkets":235},"calibration":10,"profitability":0,"consistency":0,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":8,"trustScore":23,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":824,"description":"F/23 ± 3 (high confidence, 824 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07620666666666666,"totalBets":30,"correctBets":20,"actualRate":0.6666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.07620666666666666,"error":0.59046},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15520781250000001,"totalBets":128,"correctBets":24,"actualRate":0.1875,"expectedRate":0.15520781250000001,"error":0.032292187499999986},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2475931623931624,"totalBets":234,"correctBets":22,"actualRate":0.09401709401709402,"expectedRate":0.2475931623931624,"error":0.15357606837606838},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3266545454545455,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3266545454545455,"error":0.3266545454545455},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.42865000000000003,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.42865000000000003,"error":0.42865000000000003},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5981,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5981,"error":0.5981},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.670221739130435,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.043478260869565216,"expectedRate":0.670221739130435,"error":0.6267434782608698},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7525126213592234,"totalBets":206,"correctBets":22,"actualRate":0.10679611650485436,"expectedRate":0.7525126213592234,"error":0.645716504854369},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8436677419354838,"totalBets":124,"correctBets":36,"actualRate":0.2903225806451613,"expectedRate":0.8436677419354838,"error":0.5533451612903224},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9212428571428571,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":18,"actualRate":0.6428571428571429,"expectedRate":0.9212428571428571,"error":0.27838571428571424}],"brierScore":0.3189,"calibrationError":0.3715,"resolvedBets":824,"overconfidenceBias":0.3185,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":19.1,"luck":23.9,"edge":-113.24},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.199,"resolution":0.0233,"uncertainty":0.1442},"brierSkillScore":-1.2113,"logLoss":0.8826,"logLossSkill":-0.9047,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x71fa0acc436ecdc9c36d007060d559604a44da19","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1765545514,"firstTxDate":"2025-12-12","walletAgeDays":128,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1998,"totalUsdcIn":8619.12,"totalUsdcOut":7403.01,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $16,022","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:21:31.325Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":11630.15,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x71fa0acc436ecdc9c36d007060d559604a44da19","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":7292.61,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":1,"withdrawalTxCount":229,"largestWithdrawal":121.61,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2025-12-24","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:22:11.426Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 128 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $7,293 in / $1 out across 229 withdrawal tx since 2025-12-24.","3100 total trades across 235 markets.","824 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 37.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 19/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -121.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1990 RES=0.0233 UNC=0.1442.","Log loss: 0.8826 (skill: -90.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.319","Brier Skill Score: -121.1% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Net loss: -$10414 total PnL","Low win rate: 17%","PnL divergence: $11630 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 235 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:22:12.704Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}