{"wallet":"0x7262396eecb0ad4cb7511545c15fb0605a5ae728","displayName":"Trader 0x726239...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":105,"totalVolume":151.46,"totalPnl":-1.61,"realizedPnl":-0.51,"unrealizedPnl":-1.1,"winRate":0,"openPositions":2,"resolvedBets":11,"uniqueMarkets":28},"calibration":37,"profitability":38,"consistency":67,"discipline":67,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":48,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":11,"description":"D/48 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 11 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.018250000000000002,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.018250000000000002,"error":0.018250000000000002},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1056,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1056,"error":0.1056},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.49271912652586813,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.49271912652586813,"error":0.49271912652586813},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5358409318590649,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5358409318590649,"error":0.5358409318590649},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7612271264783254,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7612271264783254,"error":0.7612271264783254},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.99,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.99,"error":0.99}],"brierScore":0.27,"calibrationError":0.3869,"resolvedBets":11,"overconfidenceBias":0.3869,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":13.6,"luck":32.2,"edge":-49.97},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2699,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0799,"logLoss":0.8978,"logLossSkill":-112.5376,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.3,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7262396eecb0ad4cb7511545c15fb0605a5ae728","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776630762,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-19","walletAgeDays":0,"totalTransactions":151,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":14,"totalEthReceived":"11.625143","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"11.625143","usdcTransfers":135,"totalUsdcIn":127.35,"totalUsdcOut":127.35,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":5,"contractInteractions":14,"botScore":60,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.33,"medianTxIntervalSec":20,"burstTxCount":5,"provenanceScore":35,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Very new wallet: 0 days old — possible sybil","Bot-like behavior detected: 5 burst txs, median interval 20s"],"greenFlags":[],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:13:19.900Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1.61,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7262396eecb0ad4cb7511545c15fb0605a5ae728","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T05:13:19.704Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 0 days, 151 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","105 total trades across 28 markets.","11 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 38.7% — needs improvement.","Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 32/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2699 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.8978 (skill: -11253.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.387","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 0 days old on Polygon","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 28 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T05:13:20.125Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}