{"wallet":"0x73c72947cd58a2d2634d6e83670270381408c21c","displayName":"Trader 0x73c729...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":1389,"totalVolume":4165.38,"totalPnl":-73.78,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-73.78,"winRate":0.011,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":371,"uniqueMarkets":643},"calibration":4,"profitability":36,"consistency":35,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":36,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":371,"description":"D/36 ± 3 (high confidence, 371 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04231297839545864,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.07692307692307693,"expectedRate":0.04231297839545864,"error":0.03461009852761829},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1543532418493105,"totalBets":27,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1543532418493105,"error":0.1543532418493105},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2500935501373981,"totalBets":45,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2500935501373981,"error":0.2500935501373981},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.356248626965852,"totalBets":45,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.356248626965852,"error":0.356248626965852},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4472379298639804,"totalBets":76,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.013157894736842105,"expectedRate":0.4472379298639804,"error":0.43408003512713833},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5406172542140304,"totalBets":85,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.011764705882352941,"expectedRate":0.5406172542140304,"error":0.5288525483316775},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6465497457172725,"totalBets":39,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6465497457172725,"error":0.6465497457172725},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7422525584896217,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7422525584896217,"error":0.7422525584896217},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8461826564713456,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8461826564713456,"error":0.8461826564713456},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9492437570640583,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.125,"expectedRate":0.9492437570640583,"error":0.8242437570640583}],"brierScore":0.2491,"calibrationError":0.4501,"resolvedBets":371,"overconfidenceBias":0.4477,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":6.1,"luck":26.4,"edge":-96.25},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2386,"resolution":0.0005,"uncertainty":0.0107},"brierSkillScore":-22.3549,"logLoss":0.7121,"logLossSkill":-10.956,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":2.4,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x73c72947cd58a2d2634d6e83670270381408c21c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775665935,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-08","walletAgeDays":11,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":1,"outboundTxCount":999,"totalEthReceived":"50.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"50.000000","usdcTransfers":1963,"totalUsdcIn":4616.96,"totalUsdcOut":3949.6,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":41,"contractInteractions":999,"botScore":40,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":10,"burstTxCount":52,"provenanceScore":55,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 11 days old","Possible automated trading: 52 burst txs","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:23.419Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":741.14,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x73c72947cd58a2d2634d6e83670270381408c21c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":3206.92,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":493,"largestWithdrawal":55.77,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-08","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:22.335Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 40/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $3,207 in / $0 out across 493 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-08.","1389 total trades across 643 markets.","371 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 45.0% — needs improvement.","Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 26/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -2235.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2386 RES=0.0005 UNC=0.0107.","Log loss: 0.7121 (skill: -1095.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 2.4 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.448","Brier Skill Score: -2235.5% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 1%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 40)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 643 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:42:30.349Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}