{"wallet":"0x7595191ed7c6e8ec98df3fc14328015ad73b872e","displayName":"3-mil-on-tour","pseudonym":"Gruesome-Candelabra","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":3585.34,"totalPnl":189.11,"realizedPnl":2203.28,"unrealizedPnl":-2014.18,"winRate":0.003,"openPositions":228,"resolvedBets":768,"uniqueMarkets":488},"calibration":38,"profitability":51,"consistency":100,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":56,"trustScore":30,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":768,"description":"F/30 [CI95: F→F, 30-30] (768 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":30,"scoreHigh":30,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03163930481283423,"totalBets":748,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.03163930481283423,"error":0.03163930481283423},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17595,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17595,"error":0.17595},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2041,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2041,"error":0.2041},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33590000000000003,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33590000000000003,"error":0.33590000000000003},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4873,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4873,"error":0.4873},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.5,"error":0.16666666666666669}],"brierScore":0.0051,"calibrationError":0.0375,"resolvedBets":768,"overconfidenceBias":0.0375,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":55.6,"luck":40.8,"edge":-97.76},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.003,"resolution":0.0009,"uncertainty":0.0026},"brierSkillScore":-0.9581,"logLoss":0.0435,"logLossSkill":-1.4025,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7595191ed7c6e8ec98df3fc14328015ad73b872e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776612416,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-19","walletAgeDays":3,"totalTransactions":2506,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":506,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":4496.82,"totalUsdcOut":804,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":506,"botScore":60,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":16,"burstTxCount":126,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Very new wallet: 3 days old — possible sybil","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 126 burst txs, median interval 16s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2506 txs","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:53:41.532Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":3503.71,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7595191ed7c6e8ec98df3fc14328015ad73b872e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":802,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-19","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T07:53:41.308Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2506 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $802 out across 0 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-19.","3100 total trades across 488 markets.","768 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 3.8% — excellent.","Skill: 56/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 41/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -95.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0030 RES=0.0009 UNC=0.0026.","Log loss: 0.0435 (skill: -140.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Brier Skill Score: -95.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Penny-lottery strategy: 97% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: wallet only 3 days old on Polygon","PnL divergence: $3504 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 1 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0051","Net profitable: +$189 total PnL","Well-diversified: 488 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-23T07:53:47.204Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 1 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":1}}