{"wallet":"0x75cc3b63a2f2423085e10706c78b494017b93ce1","displayName":"Trader 0x75cc3b...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":17229.93,"totalPnl":-24.65,"realizedPnl":-10.45,"unrealizedPnl":-14.2,"winRate":0.003,"openPositions":40,"resolvedBets":350,"uniqueMarkets":357},"calibration":13,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":96,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":43,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":350,"description":"D/39 [CI95: D→D, 38-40] (350 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":38,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06908547725331386,"totalBets":17,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06908547725331386,"error":0.06908547725331386},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1560172663944027,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1560172663944027,"error":0.1560172663944027},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25387287159392746,"totalBets":93,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25387287159392746,"error":0.25387287159392746},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35034484736938737,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35034484736938737,"error":0.35034484736938737},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4483531660201926,"totalBets":47,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4483531660201926,"error":0.4483531660201926},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5446090882612226,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5446090882612226,"error":0.5446090882612226},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.653825703016027,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.653825703016027,"error":0.653825703016027},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7522313515780435,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7522313515780435,"error":0.7522313515780435},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8373002995384512,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8373002995384512,"error":0.8373002995384512},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.934600010036364,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.934600010036364,"error":0.43460001003636395}],"brierScore":0.1392,"calibrationError":0.3325,"resolvedBets":350,"overconfidenceBias":0.3325,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":20.3,"luck":14.3,"edge":-171.22},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.137,"resolution":0.0014,"uncertainty":0.0028},"brierSkillScore":-47.8738,"logLoss":0.4528,"logLossSkill":-22.1134,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x75cc3b63a2f2423085e10706c78b494017b93ce1","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776176883,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-14","walletAgeDays":21,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":2,"outboundTxCount":999,"totalEthReceived":"130.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"130.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5817.02,"totalUsdcOut":4547.29,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":998,"botScore":80,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":6,"burstTxCount":498,"provenanceScore":56,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 21 days old","Bot-like behavior detected: 498 burst txs, median interval 6s","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,364"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T09:20:58.727Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1294.38,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x75cc3b63a2f2423085e10706c78b494017b93ce1","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":2408.99,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":2000,"withdrawalTxCount":186,"largestWithdrawal":26.52,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-14","fetchedAt":"2026-05-06T09:42:59.319Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 80/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,409 in / $2,000 out across 186 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-14.","3100 total trades across 357 markets.","350 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 33.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 20/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 14/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -4787.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1370 RES=0.0014 UNC=0.0028.","Log loss: 0.4528 (skill: -2211.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.333","Brier Skill Score: -4787.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 0%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 80)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1392","Well-diversified: 357 unique markets"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-06T09:43:04.220Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 21 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":21}}