{"wallet":"0x775d9de0c72c76a459fadfbb4cd79d5715236beb","displayName":"imake1mil","pseudonym":"Wrong-Promotion","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":132018.18,"totalPnl":-754003.66,"realizedPnl":13919.63,"unrealizedPnl":-767923.29,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":992,"uniqueMarkets":241},"calibration":29,"profitability":0,"consistency":83,"discipline":83,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":64,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":992,"description":"D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (992 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":45,"scoreHigh":47,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06460400000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.06460400000000001,"error":0.06460400000000001},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15226000000000003,"totalBets":70,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15226000000000003,"error":0.15226000000000003},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25276896551724143,"totalBets":116,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.25276896551724143,"error":0.25276896551724143},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35567179487179484,"totalBets":156,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35567179487179484,"error":0.35567179487179484},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45511688311688325,"totalBets":154,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45511688311688325,"error":0.45511688311688325},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5449468354430382,"totalBets":158,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5449468354430382,"error":0.5449468354430382},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6508225806451615,"totalBets":124,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6508225806451615,"error":0.6508225806451615},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7408799999999999,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7408799999999999,"error":0.7408799999999999},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8466304347826084,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8466304347826084,"error":0.8466304347826084},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9447684210526317,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9447684210526317,"error":0.9447684210526317}],"brierScore":0.2741,"calibrationError":0.4735,"resolvedBets":992,"overconfidenceBias":0.4735,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":3.2,"luck":28.5,"edge":-79.95},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2733,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.0964,"logLoss":0.7838,"logLossSkill":-98.123,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x775d9de0c72c76a459fadfbb4cd79d5715236beb","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776314876,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-16","walletAgeDays":78,"totalTransactions":2452,"uniqueCounterparties":44,"inboundTxCount":452,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":64653.73,"totalUsdcOut":61223.25,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":452,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.88,"medianTxIntervalSec":916,"burstTxCount":64,"provenanceScore":68,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2452 txs","Significant USDC flow: $125,877","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:57:33.064Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":757434.14,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x775d9de0c72c76a459fadfbb4cd79d5715236beb","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":39631.12,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":145,"largestWithdrawal":1697.47,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-16","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:59:07.815Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 78 days, 2452 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $39,631 in / $0 out across 145 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-16.","3100 total trades across 241 markets.","992 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 47.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -9.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2733 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7838 (skill: -9812.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.473","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$754004 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $757434 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 241 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $39,631 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 145 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T01:59:09.400Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.29936002552156643,"reason":"Wallet age 78d → difficulty factor 0.30","ageDaysUsed":78}}