{"wallet":"0x790c5f16037071c01e475ffdcdeb503120235e13","displayName":"Content-Boy","pseudonym":"Content-Boy","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":7137.22,"totalPnl":-699.59,"realizedPnl":-0.45,"unrealizedPnl":-699.14,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":472,"uniqueMarkets":845},"calibration":11,"profitability":20,"consistency":62,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":34,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":472,"description":"F/34 [CI95: F→D, 33-35] (472 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":33,"scoreHigh":35,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.033840000000000016,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.033840000000000016,"error":0.033840000000000016},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1580557934300512,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1580557934300512,"error":0.1580557934300512},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24947041308853737,"totalBets":13,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24947041308853737,"error":0.24947041308853737},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35607896127101807,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35607896127101807,"error":0.35607896127101807},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4587283025748418,"totalBets":61,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4587283025748418,"error":0.4587283025748418},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5571793863869053,"totalBets":94,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5571793863869053,"error":0.5571793863869053},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6448214273827126,"totalBets":80,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6448214273827126,"error":0.6448214273827126},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7451031204554612,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7451031204554612,"error":0.7451031204554612},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8460936500427912,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8460936500427912,"error":0.8460936500427912},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9437465158474729,"totalBets":41,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9437465158474729,"error":0.9437465158474729}],"brierScore":0.4084,"calibrationError":0.608,"resolvedBets":472,"overconfidenceBias":0.608,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0,"luck":18.6,"edge":-43.16},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.4076,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.6337,"logLoss":1.1424,"logLossSkill":-143.4809,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":4.6,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":5}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x790c5f16037071c01e475ffdcdeb503120235e13","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774817304,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-29","walletAgeDays":27,"totalTransactions":2395,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":395,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":5357.35,"totalUsdcOut":5288.69,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":395,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.5,"medianTxIntervalSec":1502,"burstTxCount":1,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 27 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Counterparty concentration: 50% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2395 txs","Significant USDC flow: $10,646","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T09:16:04.528Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":768.25,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x790c5f16037071c01e475ffdcdeb503120235e13","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4244.85,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":186,"largestWithdrawal":114.51,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-29","fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T09:16:04.730Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2395 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,245 in / $0 out across 186 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-29.","3100 total trades across 845 markets.","472 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 60.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 19/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -63.4% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.4076 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 1.1424 (skill: -14348.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 4.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4084","Overconfidence bias: 0.608","Brier Skill Score: -63.4% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$700 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","young_wallet: Wallet is only 27 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 845 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-26T09:16:11.418Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 27 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":27}}