{"wallet":"0x79d3f5e3b4d729f994ba221ae2bd3af28a5a6100","displayName":"soltrader2","pseudonym":"Huge-Detention","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":11963.72,"totalPnl":-10048.46,"realizedPnl":1756.58,"unrealizedPnl":-11805.04,"winRate":0.397,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":992,"uniqueMarkets":200},"calibration":38,"profitability":0,"consistency":6,"discipline":81,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":42,"trustScore":37,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":992,"description":"D/37 ± 3 (high confidence, 992 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.06309999999999999,"totalBets":48,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.08333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.06309999999999999,"error":0.02023333333333334},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15294444444444444,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":32,"actualRate":0.2962962962962963,"expectedRate":0.15294444444444444,"error":0.14335185185185184},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.25142615384615385,"totalBets":130,"correctBets":62,"actualRate":0.47692307692307695,"expectedRate":0.25142615384615385,"error":0.2254969230769231},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3359579999999999,"totalBets":100,"correctBets":46,"actualRate":0.46,"expectedRate":0.3359579999999999,"error":0.1240420000000001},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4412499999999997,"totalBets":84,"correctBets":52,"actualRate":0.6190476190476191,"expectedRate":0.4412499999999997,"error":0.17779761904761937},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5473538461538463,"totalBets":104,"correctBets":48,"actualRate":0.46153846153846156,"expectedRate":0.5473538461538463,"error":0.08581538461538474},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6591833333333339,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":50,"actualRate":0.46296296296296297,"expectedRate":0.6591833333333339,"error":0.19622037037037093},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7481476923076924,"totalBets":130,"correctBets":48,"actualRate":0.36923076923076925,"expectedRate":0.7481476923076924,"error":0.37891692307692315},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8460014705882355,"totalBets":136,"correctBets":42,"actualRate":0.3088235294117647,"expectedRate":0.8460014705882355,"error":0.5371779411764708},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9360545454545455,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.22727272727272727,"expectedRate":0.9360545454545455,"error":0.7087818181818182}],"brierScore":0.3262,"calibrationError":0.2588,"resolvedBets":992,"overconfidenceBias":0.1114,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":31.3,"luck":100,"edge":-24.29},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0988,"resolution":0.0146,"uncertainty":0.2394},"brierSkillScore":-0.3625,"logLoss":0.9132,"logLossSkill":-0.3592,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x79d3f5e3b4d729f994ba221ae2bd3af28a5a6100","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1768116566,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-11","walletAgeDays":98,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":7974.62,"totalUsdcOut":6972.94,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":58,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $14,948","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:23:57.421Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":11050.14,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x79d3f5e3b4d729f994ba221ae2bd3af28a5a6100","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1693.3,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":24,"largestWithdrawal":208.94,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-01-11","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T04:26:06.526Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 98 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,693 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-01-11.","3100 total trades across 200 markets.","992 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 25.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 31/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -36.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0988 RES=0.0146 UNC=0.2394.","Log loss: 0.9132 (skill: -35.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.111","High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -36.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$10048 total PnL","Low win rate: 40%","PnL divergence: $11050 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 200 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T04:26:08.141Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}