{"wallet":"0x7d5f7a2f56f8aa188281f9cfc3697467e7aaf568","displayName":"LuckyAliemOx","pseudonym":"Yearly-Backup-Stone","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":111569.62,"totalPnl":-1085.4,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-1085.4,"winRate":0,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":207,"uniqueMarkets":209},"calibration":26,"profitability":38,"consistency":54,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":39,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":207,"description":"D/39 ± 3 (high confidence, 207 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.037097544735399654,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.037097544735399654,"error":0.037097544735399654},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.17520231855809434,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.17520231855809434,"error":0.17520231855809434},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26285185763676694,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26285185763676694,"error":0.26285185763676694},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.35304927973319933,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.35304927973319933,"error":0.35304927973319933},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45373945685062106,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.45373945685062106,"error":0.45373945685062106},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5453419361278499,"totalBets":63,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5453419361278499,"error":0.5453419361278499},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6492518093479436,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6492518093479436,"error":0.6492518093479436},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.740339822981103,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.740339822981103,"error":0.740339822981103},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8333341903853042,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8333341903853042,"error":0.8333341903853042},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9160662775708845,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9160662775708845,"error":0.9160662775708845}],"brierScore":0.2808,"calibrationError":0.4989,"resolvedBets":207,"overconfidenceBias":0.4989,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":0.1,"luck":49.3,"edge":-118.03},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2801,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":-0.1234,"logLoss":0.7662,"logLossSkill":-95.9031,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1.7,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":2}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7d5f7a2f56f8aa188281f9cfc3697467e7aaf568","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775734909,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-09","walletAgeDays":10,"totalTransactions":2379,"uniqueCounterparties":30,"inboundTxCount":379,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1980,"totalUsdcIn":40790.05,"totalUsdcOut":35861.07,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":22,"contractInteractions":379,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.06,"medianTxIntervalSec":600,"burstTxCount":2,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 10 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2379 txs","Significant USDC flow: $76,651","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:39.164Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":6014.38,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7d5f7a2f56f8aa188281f9cfc3697467e7aaf568","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":31773.17,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":60,"largestWithdrawal":2161.27,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-09","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:37.523Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 10 days, 2379 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $31,773 in / $0 out across 60 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-09.","3100 total trades across 209 markets.","207 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 49.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 49/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -12.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2801 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.7662 (skill: -9590.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.7 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.499","Brier Skill Score: -12.3% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$1085 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 209 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $31,773 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 60 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:16:46.041Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","cached":true,"cachedAt":1776655006041}