{"wallet":"0x7dadd17c23feac003f66435dc1be8b77557a147c","displayName":"Trader 0x7dadd1...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":6990.79,"totalPnl":2.62,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":2.62,"winRate":0.178,"openPositions":14,"resolvedBets":191,"uniqueMarkets":213},"calibration":0,"profitability":40,"consistency":37,"discipline":95,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":33,"trustScore":38,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":191,"description":"D/38 [CI95: D→D, 36-40] (191 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":36,"scoreHigh":40,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.022628562955865954,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":27,"actualRate":0.9642857142857143,"expectedRate":0.022628562955865954,"error":0.9416571513298484},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1462820241202046,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.1462820241202046,"error":0.053717975879795404},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.23604487115856504,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.0625,"expectedRate":0.23604487115856504,"error":0.17354487115856504},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3496618421479622,"totalBets":25,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.12,"expectedRate":0.3496618421479622,"error":0.2296618421479622},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4549094070411238,"totalBets":32,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.03125,"expectedRate":0.4549094070411238,"error":0.4236594070411238},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5483109259539084,"totalBets":23,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5483109259539084,"error":0.5483109259539084},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6582498952649994,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6582498952649994,"error":0.6582498952649994},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7419606861978825,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7419606861978825,"error":0.7419606861978825},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8447035797708576,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8447035797708576,"error":0.8447035797708576},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9389726259637104,"totalBets":7,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9389726259637104,"error":0.9389726259637104}],"brierScore":0.4229,"calibrationError":0.5518,"resolvedBets":191,"overconfidenceBias":0.2701,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":17.5,"luck":29.4,"edge":-61.91},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.3849,"resolution":0.1091,"uncertainty":0.1463},"brierSkillScore":-1.8902,"logLoss":1.3909,"logLossSkill":-1.9697,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":1,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7dadd17c23feac003f66435dc1be8b77557a147c","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1780869957,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-07","walletAgeDays":23,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":1,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":30,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 23 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:19:57.365Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7dadd17c23feac003f66435dc1be8b77557a147c","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T07:24:02.369Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 213 markets.","191 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 55.2% — needs improvement.","Skill: 18/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -189.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.3849 RES=0.1091 UNC=0.1463.","Log loss: 1.3909 (skill: -197.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 1.0 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Weak Brier score: 0.4229","Overconfidence bias: 0.270","Brier Skill Score: -189.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 18%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong resolution/discrimination: forecasts meaningfully diverge from base rate","Net profitable: +$3 total PnL","Well-diversified: 213 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T07:24:03.260Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}