{"wallet":"0x7dfc8aa22f2d4d6f9cbf55cf86682a4d2477f54e","displayName":"CramSchoolClub01","pseudonym":"Neglected-Supernatural","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":62248.68,"totalPnl":-57651.43,"realizedPnl":1147.27,"unrealizedPnl":-58798.7,"winRate":0.053,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":226,"uniqueMarkets":99},"calibration":3,"profitability":0,"consistency":71,"discipline":50,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":28,"trustGrade":"F","trustTier":"DANGER","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":226,"description":"F/28 [CI95: F→F, 26-30] (226 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":26,"scoreHigh":30,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.022272727272727277,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.022272727272727277,"error":0.06863636363636363},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15955,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15955,"error":0.15955},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.26675384615384606,"totalBets":26,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.26675384615384606,"error":0.26675384615384606},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34299090909090907,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.34299090909090907,"error":0.2520818181818182},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46112222222222216,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.1111111111111111,"expectedRate":0.46112222222222216,"error":0.35001111111111105},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.54825,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.1,"expectedRate":0.54825,"error":0.44825000000000004},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6381526315789474,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6381526315789474,"error":0.6381526315789474},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7446941176470587,"totalBets":34,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.058823529411764705,"expectedRate":0.7446941176470587,"error":0.685870588235294},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.87104,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.87104,"error":0.87104},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9900000000000001,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9900000000000001,"error":0.9900000000000001}],"brierScore":0.317,"calibrationError":0.4588,"resolvedBets":226,"overconfidenceBias":0.4455,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":5.3,"luck":34,"edge":-18.85},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2686,"resolution":0.0021,"uncertainty":0.0503},"brierSkillScore":-5.3058,"logLoss":0.9265,"logLossSkill":-3.4642,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7dfc8aa22f2d4d6f9cbf55cf86682a4d2477f54e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776466142,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-17","walletAgeDays":11,"totalTransactions":2222,"uniqueCounterparties":44,"inboundTxCount":222,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":239730,"totalUsdcOut":223890.95,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":222,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.05,"medianTxIntervalSec":354,"burstTxCount":16,"provenanceScore":63,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 11 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2222 txs","Significant USDC flow: $463,621","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 44 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T08:24:28.430Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":73490.48,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7dfc8aa22f2d4d6f9cbf55cf86682a4d2477f54e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":205465.31,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":59,"largestWithdrawal":11251.27,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-18","fetchedAt":"2026-04-29T08:24:28.415Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 2222 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $205,465 in / $0 out across 59 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-18.","3100 total trades across 99 markets.","226 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 45.9% — needs improvement.","Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 34/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -530.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2686 RES=0.0021 UNC=0.0503.","Log loss: 0.9265 (skill: -346.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.446","Brier Skill Score: -530.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$57651 total PnL","Low win rate: 5%","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market","PnL divergence: $73490 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","young_wallet: Wallet is only 10 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 99 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network","On-chain: $205,465 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 59 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-29T08:24:34.521Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 10 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":10}}