{"wallet":"0x7f51b3507da153925151880006c364cf5d887b9e","displayName":"Gengens","pseudonym":"Threadbare-Cameo","raw":{"totalTrades":451,"totalVolume":31261.68,"totalPnl":4014.03,"realizedPnl":1179.02,"unrealizedPnl":2835.01,"winRate":0.108,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":166,"uniqueMarkets":182},"calibration":11,"profitability":66,"consistency":68,"discipline":89,"sampleSize":88,"liveEdge":75,"trustScore":59,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":166,"description":"C/59 ± 8 (medium confidence, 166 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04000906951045904,"totalBets":19,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.05263157894736842,"expectedRate":0.04000906951045904,"error":0.01262250943690938},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.1502757450714257,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.1502757450714257,"error":0.1502757450714257},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24459728963543337,"totalBets":20,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.25,"expectedRate":0.24459728963543337,"error":0.005402710364566632},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3613583935427691,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.3613583935427691,"error":0.19469172687610245},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4648306177632961,"totalBets":33,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.09090909090909091,"expectedRate":0.4648306177632961,"error":0.3739215268542052},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5359055921488877,"totalBets":35,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.17142857142857143,"expectedRate":0.5359055921488877,"error":0.36447702072031624},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6477450077616612,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.1111111111111111,"expectedRate":0.6477450077616612,"error":0.5366338966505502},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7389420771512548,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7389420771512548,"error":0.7389420771512548},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8543353067712611,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8543353067712611,"error":0.8543353067712611},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9174013906324066,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9174013906324066,"error":0.9174013906324066}],"brierScore":0.2978,"calibrationError":0.3682,"resolvedBets":166,"overconfidenceBias":0.364,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":16.8,"luck":59.1,"edge":-47.7},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.2067,"resolution":0.0063,"uncertainty":0.0967},"brierSkillScore":-2.0804,"logLoss":0.8147,"logLossSkill":-1.3736,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":28.8,"earlyMoverPct":0.791,"timelinessScore":60}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7f51b3507da153925151880006c364cf5d887b9e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1771145467,"firstTxDate":"2026-02-15","walletAgeDays":63,"totalTransactions":548,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":546,"totalUsdcIn":33472.63,"totalUsdcOut":27131.54,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 548 txs","Significant USDC flow: $60,604","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:08.376Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":2327.06,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7f51b3507da153925151880006c364cf5d887b9e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":10736.96,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":35,"largestWithdrawal":754.8,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-02-28","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:07.606Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 63 days, 548 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $10,737 in / $0 out across 35 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-28.","451 total trades across 182 markets.","166 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 36.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 17/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 59/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -208.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.2067 RES=0.0063 UNC=0.0967.","Log loss: 0.8147 (skill: -137.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 28.8 days before resolution, 79% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.364","Brier Skill Score: -208.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Low win rate: 11%"],"greenFlags":["Early mover: avg 29 days before resolution","Strong live edge: 6 open positions trending profitable","Net profitable: +$4014 total PnL","Well-diversified: 182 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $10,737 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 35 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:45:11.045Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}