{"wallet":"0x7fa8406447d7d1317c022b64b8caa7b108c2fd4e","displayName":"Keisor","pseudonym":"Serpentine-Aftershave","raw":{"totalTrades":285,"totalVolume":4429.79,"totalPnl":-100.39,"realizedPnl":-1.67,"unrealizedPnl":-98.72,"winRate":0.206,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":68,"uniqueMarkets":113},"calibration":56,"profitability":35,"consistency":76,"discipline":92,"sampleSize":75,"liveEdge":87,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"medium","margin":8,"resolvedBets":68,"description":"D/46 ± 8 (medium confidence, 68 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07961209108220767,"totalBets":36,"correctBets":5,"actualRate":0.1388888888888889,"expectedRate":0.07961209108220767,"error":0.05927679780668123},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.16717739245227767,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.4,"expectedRate":0.16717739245227767,"error":0.23282260754772235},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.21997195040460968,"totalBets":4,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.21997195040460968,"error":0.21997195040460968},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34993520592129085,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.34993520592129085,"error":0.34993520592129085},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4485492811001437,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.4444444444444444,"expectedRate":0.4485492811001437,"error":0.004104836655699273},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5829926454222033,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.5829926454222033,"error":0.0829926454222033},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6803005111900159,"totalBets":3,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6803005111900159,"error":0.6803005111900159},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7966832546019836,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.7966832546019836,"error":0.20331674539801636},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8630501579259817,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.8630501579259817,"error":0.3630501579259817}],"brierScore":0.1781,"calibrationError":0.139,"resolvedBets":68,"overconfidenceBias":0.036,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":48.9,"luck":100,"edge":-31.95},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0446,"resolution":0.0351,"uncertainty":0.1635},"brierSkillScore":-0.0892,"logLoss":0.5972,"logLossSkill":-0.1745,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":5.6,"earlyMoverPct":0.026,"timelinessScore":7}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7fa8406447d7d1317c022b64b8caa7b108c2fd4e","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1774846874,"firstTxDate":"2026-03-30","walletAgeDays":20,"totalTransactions":578,"uniqueCounterparties":21,"inboundTxCount":44,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":532,"totalUsdcIn":2699.6,"totalUsdcOut":2699.05,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":44,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.14,"medianTxIntervalSec":8686,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":53,"provenanceGrade":"C","flags":["Young wallet: only 20 days old","Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 578 txs","Human-like transaction patterns","Diverse trading network: 21 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:35.940Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":100.94,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7fa8406447d7d1317c022b64b8caa7b108c2fd4e","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1.17,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":2,"largestWithdrawal":1.16,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-05","fetchedAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:35.024Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 578 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1 in / $0 out across 2 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-05.","285 total trades across 113 markets.","68 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 13.9% — good.","Skill: 49/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -8.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0446 RES=0.0351 UNC=0.1635.","Log loss: 0.5972 (skill: -17.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 5.6 days before resolution, 3% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Penny-lottery strategy: 53% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 15 pts","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$100 total PnL","Low win rate: 21%"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1781","Strong live edge: 6 open positions trending profitable","Well-diversified: 113 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-20T03:37:36.318Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}