{"wallet":"0x7fea691e28d169a33c500607279f2acb49058f74","displayName":"CavaSoTasty","pseudonym":"Cuddly-Will","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":338616.33,"totalPnl":120036.14,"realizedPnl":177211.54,"unrealizedPnl":-57175.4,"winRate":0.153,"openPositions":16,"resolvedBets":378,"uniqueMarkets":220},"calibration":15,"profitability":100,"consistency":53,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":43,"trustScore":54,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":378,"description":"C/54 [CI95: C→C, 52-56] (378 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":52,"scoreHigh":56,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.04997592592592593,"totalBets":108,"correctBets":16,"actualRate":0.14814814814814814,"expectedRate":0.04997592592592593,"error":0.09817222222222222},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15729130434782607,"totalBets":46,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.13043478260869565,"expectedRate":0.15729130434782607,"error":0.026856521739130418},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24901818181818178,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":8,"actualRate":0.18181818181818182,"expectedRate":0.24901818181818178,"error":0.06719999999999995},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3501636363636363,"totalBets":22,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.18181818181818182,"expectedRate":0.3501636363636363,"error":0.16834545454545446},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.46367777777777786,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":6,"actualRate":0.3333333333333333,"expectedRate":0.46367777777777786,"error":0.13034444444444454},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.54312,"totalBets":10,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.2,"expectedRate":0.54312,"error":0.34312000000000004},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6560857142857143,"totalBets":14,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6560857142857143,"error":0.6560857142857143},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7529444444444445,"totalBets":18,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.1111111111111111,"expectedRate":0.7529444444444445,"error":0.6418333333333335},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8412947368421051,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.10526315789473684,"expectedRate":0.8412947368421051,"error":0.7360315789473683},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9542499999999997,"totalBets":60,"correctBets":10,"actualRate":0.16666666666666666,"expectedRate":0.9542499999999997,"error":0.7875833333333331}],"brierScore":0.3257,"calibrationError":0.3181,"resolvedBets":378,"overconfidenceBias":0.262,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":22.3,"luck":90.9,"edge":-20.02},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1974,"resolution":0.003,"uncertainty":0.1299},"brierSkillScore":-1.5071,"logLoss":1.0348,"logLossSkill":-1.4142,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x7fea691e28d169a33c500607279f2acb49058f74","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1720016447,"firstTxDate":"2024-07-03","walletAgeDays":661,"totalTransactions":2945,"uniqueCounterparties":34,"inboundTxCount":945,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1989,"totalUsdcIn":173779.9,"totalUsdcOut":164929.25,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":13,"contractInteractions":945,"botScore":10,"washTradingScore":20,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.48,"medianTxIntervalSec":404,"burstTxCount":79,"provenanceScore":83,"provenanceGrade":"A","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 661 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2945 txs","Significant USDC flow: $338,709","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T12:59:50.927Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":111185.49,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x7fea691e28d169a33c500607279f2acb49058f74","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":15919.25,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":39,"largestWithdrawal":2100,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2024-07-09","fetchedAt":"2026-04-26T12:59:46.923Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 661 days, 2945 txs, provenance grade A. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $15,919 in / $0 out across 39 withdrawal tx since 2024-07-09.","3100 total trades across 220 markets.","378 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 31.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 22/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 91/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -150.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1974 RES=0.0030 UNC=0.1299.","Log loss: 1.0348 (skill: -141.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.262","High luck component: 91/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -150.7% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Low win rate: 15%","PnL divergence: $111185 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows"],"greenFlags":["Net profitable: +$120036 total PnL","Well-diversified: 220 unique markets","On-chain: 661-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $15,919 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 39 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-26T12:59:52.832Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.8420978090056884,"reason":"Wallet age 441d → difficulty factor 0.84","ageDaysUsed":441}}