{"wallet":"0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887","displayName":"PrincessCaro","pseudonym":"Golden-Cast","raw":{"totalTrades":376,"totalVolume":6280087.65,"totalPnl":0,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":0,"winRate":0.714,"openPositions":0,"resolvedBets":14,"uniqueMarkets":14},"calibration":43,"profitability":40,"consistency":15,"discipline":21,"sampleSize":40,"liveEdge":40,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"very_low","margin":25,"resolvedBets":14,"description":"D/35 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 14 resolved bets)"},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.27728311045325826,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.5,"expectedRate":0.27728311045325826,"error":0.22271688954674174},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3419449145336089,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.3419449145336089,"error":0.6580550854663911},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.45805863455346085,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":3,"actualRate":0.6,"expectedRate":0.45805863455346085,"error":0.14194136544653913},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.543868280654294,"totalBets":5,"correctBets":4,"actualRate":0.8,"expectedRate":0.543868280654294,"error":0.256131719345706},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6686461048027046,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.6686461048027046,"error":0.3313538951972954}],"brierScore":0.2571,"calibrationError":0.2447,"resolvedBets":14,"overconfidenceBias":-0.2447,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":34.7,"luck":100,"edge":37.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0765,"resolution":0.0255,"uncertainty":0.2041},"brierSkillScore":-0.2597,"logLoss":0.7101,"logLossSkill":-0.1869,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":564.2,"earlyMoverPct":1,"timelinessScore":100}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1727881868,"firstTxDate":"2024-10-02","walletAgeDays":565,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":9941586.25,"totalUsdcOut":9774652.26,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":71,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Wallet age: 565 days (mature)","Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $19,716,239","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T07:01:08.885Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x8119010a6e589062aa03583bb3f39ca632d9f887","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":27905.73,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":5,"largestWithdrawal":9627.75,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2024-10-04","fetchedAt":"2026-04-21T07:05:41.304Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 565 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $27,906 in / $0 out across 5 withdrawal tx since 2024-10-04.","376 total trades across 14 markets.","14 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 24.5% — needs improvement.","Skill: 35/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -26.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0765 RES=0.0255 UNC=0.2041.","Log loss: 0.7101 (skill: -18.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 564.2 days before resolution, 100% early mover."],"flags":["High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -26.0% — performing worse than naive baseline","Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market"],"greenFlags":["Conservative (underconfident) bias","Early mover: avg 564 days before resolution","Strong win rate: 71%","On-chain: 565-day wallet history on Polygon","On-chain: human-like trading patterns","On-chain: $27,906 total USDC.e received from Polymarket contracts across 5 tx (Polygon)"],"scoredAt":"2026-04-21T07:05:41.385Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance."}