{"wallet":"0x8176b6002c28504c38c18994817ffe178bb5709a","displayName":"Trader 0x8176b6...","pseudonym":"","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":33750.75,"totalPnl":-17.84,"realizedPnl":-0.33,"unrealizedPnl":-17.51,"winRate":0.008,"openPositions":6,"resolvedBets":500,"uniqueMarkets":903},"calibration":28,"profitability":40,"consistency":0,"discipline":76,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":13,"trustScore":35,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":500,"description":"D/35 [CI95: D→D, 35-35] (500 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":35,"scoreHigh":35,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05132649652561245,"totalBets":180,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.011111111111111112,"expectedRate":0.05132649652561245,"error":0.040215385414501335},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14997379227562538,"totalBets":158,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":0.006329113924050633,"expectedRate":0.14997379227562538,"error":0.14364467835157474},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24296047145031352,"totalBets":103,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24296047145031352,"error":0.24296047145031352},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.33964515144589563,"totalBets":44,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.33964515144589563,"error":0.33964515144589563},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.44828180486684627,"totalBets":9,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.44828180486684627,"error":0.44828180486684627},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5164402010739656,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5164402010739656,"error":0.5164402010739656},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6074161583987687,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6074161583987687,"error":0.6074161583987687},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7537508839092891,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7537508839092891,"error":0.7537508839092891},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9056,"totalBets":1,"correctBets":1,"actualRate":1,"expectedRate":0.9056,"error":0.09440000000000004}],"brierScore":0.0436,"calibrationError":0.1544,"resolvedBets":500,"overconfidenceBias":0.154,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":41.8,"luck":26.8,"edge":-405.55},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.0371,"resolution":0.002,"uncertainty":0.0079},"brierSkillScore":-4.4891,"logLoss":0.1993,"logLossSkill":-3.2768,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0.5,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":1}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x8176b6002c28504c38c18994817ffe178bb5709a","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1776894042,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-22","walletAgeDays":16,"totalTransactions":3000,"uniqueCounterparties":5,"inboundTxCount":2,"outboundTxCount":998,"totalEthReceived":"186.740000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"186.740000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":10118,"totalUsdcOut":7500.72,"protocolsUsed":["USDC","USDC.e (Bridged)","Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":4,"contractInteractions":998,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":50,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.99,"medianTxIntervalSec":2,"burstTxCount":646,"provenanceScore":60,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Young wallet: only 16 days old","Bot-like behavior detected: 646 burst txs, median interval 2s","Counterparty concentration: 99% with top address"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 3000 txs","Significant USDC flow: $17,619"],"fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:35:27.041Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":2635.12,"pnlVerified":true},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x8176b6002c28504c38c18994817ffe178bb5709a","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":4559.27,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":344,"largestWithdrawal":137.13,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-04-22","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:53:33.512Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 16 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 50/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,559 in / $0 out across 344 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-22.","3100 total trades across 903 markets.","500 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 15.4% — good.","Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 27/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -448.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.0371 RES=0.0020 UNC=0.0079.","Log loss: 0.1993 (skill: -327.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.","Timeliness: avg entry 0.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.154","Brier Skill Score: -448.9% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Weak live edge: open positions mostly underwater","Low win rate: 1%","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)","young_wallet: Wallet is only 15 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.0436","Well-diversified: 903 unique markets","On-chain: multi-protocol user (USDC, USDC.e (Bridged), Polymarket Neg Risk Adapter)"],"scoredAt":"2026-05-09T09:53:40.490Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 15 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":15}}