{"wallet":"0x828b32d58d6624b0716f8f8661cbef5529cba12b","displayName":"devonpoll","pseudonym":"Granular-Dial","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":22584.44,"totalPnl":-44161.32,"realizedPnl":11711.98,"unrealizedPnl":-55873.29,"winRate":0,"openPositions":8,"resolvedBets":992,"uniqueMarkets":460},"calibration":61,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":90,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":50,"trustScore":54,"trustGrade":"C","trustTier":"DEVELOPING","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":992,"description":"C/54 [CI95: C→C, 54-54] (992 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":54,"scoreHigh":54,"gradeLow":"C","gradeHigh":"C","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.05970000000000001,"totalBets":28,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.05970000000000001,"error":0.05970000000000001},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.15625,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.15625,"error":0.15625},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.24890232558139536,"totalBets":86,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.24890232558139536,"error":0.24890232558139536},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3569656565656567,"totalBets":198,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3569656565656567,"error":0.3569656565656567},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4460258426966292,"totalBets":178,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4460258426966292,"error":0.4460258426966292},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5027547945205479,"totalBets":438,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5027547945205479,"error":0.5027547945205479},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6467666666666667,"totalBets":6,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.6467666666666667,"error":0.6467666666666667},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.75,"totalBets":2,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.75,"error":0.75}],"brierScore":0.1838,"calibrationError":0.4108,"resolvedBets":992,"overconfidenceBias":0.4108,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":10.7,"luck":14.8,"edge":-102.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1832,"resolution":0,"uncertainty":0},"brierSkillScore":0.2649,"logLoss":0.5485,"logLossSkill":-68.3702,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x828b32d58d6624b0716f8f8661cbef5529cba12b","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1769446463,"firstTxDate":"2026-01-26","walletAgeDays":158,"totalTransactions":2859,"uniqueCounterparties":63,"inboundTxCount":859,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":2000,"totalUsdcIn":3801.14,"totalUsdcOut":3520.46,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":859,"botScore":30,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":264,"burstTxCount":291,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Possible automated trading: 291 burst txs"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2859 txs","Diverse counterparties: 63 unique addresses","Diverse trading network: 63 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:45:50.366Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":44442,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x828b32d58d6624b0716f8f8661cbef5529cba12b","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":1258.63,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":33,"largestWithdrawal":129.08,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"2026-03-18","fetchedAt":"2026-07-04T01:46:29.285Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 158 days, 2859 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,259 in / $0 out across 33 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-18.","3100 total trades across 460 markets.","992 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 41.1% — needs improvement.","Skill: 11/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: 26.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1832 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.","Log loss: 0.5485 (skill: -6837.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.411","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$44161 total PnL","Low win rate: 0%","PnL divergence: $44442 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.1838","Brier Skill Score: 26.5% better than naive baseline","Well-diversified: 460 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-04T01:46:32.773Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.41270819895285593,"reason":"Wallet age 112d → difficulty factor 0.41","ageDaysUsed":112}}