{"wallet":"0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9","displayName":"0x83D9a38fbF2265d1A0","pseudonym":"Improbable-Riser-Average","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":51685.15,"totalPnl":-66100.63,"realizedPnl":18818.47,"unrealizedPnl":-84919.1,"winRate":0.039,"openPositions":222,"resolvedBets":778,"uniqueMarkets":485},"calibration":13,"profitability":0,"consistency":88,"discipline":91,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":46,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":778,"description":"D/46 [CI95: D→D, 45-47] (778 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":45,"scoreHigh":47,"gradeLow":"INS","gradeHigh":"INS","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":true}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.03903435114503814,"totalBets":262,"correctBets":28,"actualRate":0.10687022900763359,"expectedRate":0.03903435114503814,"error":0.06783587786259544},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.13639189189189177,"totalBets":74,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.13639189189189177,"error":0.13639189189189177},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2611192307692307,"totalBets":52,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.2611192307692307,"error":0.2611192307692307},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.3597379310344827,"totalBets":58,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.3597379310344827,"error":0.3597379310344827},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4443399999999999,"totalBets":90,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.4443399999999999,"error":0.4443399999999999},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5544511111111109,"totalBets":90,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5544511111111109,"error":0.5544511111111109},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.6498120000000001,"totalBets":50,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.04,"expectedRate":0.6498120000000001,"error":0.609812},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7430999999999999,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7430999999999999,"error":0.7430999999999999},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8443399999999999,"totalBets":40,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8443399999999999,"error":0.8443399999999999},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.9257833333333334,"totalBets":24,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.9257833333333334,"error":0.9257833333333334}],"brierScore":0.2267,"calibrationError":0.3431,"resolvedBets":778,"overconfidenceBias":0.2974,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":19.2,"luck":78,"edge":-78.77},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1899,"resolution":0.0025,"uncertainty":0.0371},"brierSkillScore":-5.1155,"logLoss":0.702,"logLossSkill":-3.2976,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1781774056,"firstTxDate":"2026-06-18","walletAgeDays":13,"totalTransactions":2000,"uniqueCounterparties":0,"inboundTxCount":0,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":0,"totalUsdcIn":0,"totalUsdcOut":0,"protocolsUsed":[],"uniqueContractsInteracted":2,"contractInteractions":0,"botScore":0,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0,"medianTxIntervalSec":0,"burstTxCount":0,"provenanceScore":30,"provenanceGrade":"D","flags":["Young wallet: only 13 days old","Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses","No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs","Human-like transaction patterns"],"fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T12:51:40.477Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":null,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x83d9a38fbf2265d1a092499a964412dd44e810d9","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-07-01T12:51:42.366Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 485 markets.","778 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 34.3% — needs improvement.","Skill: 19/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 78/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -511.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1899 RES=0.0025 UNC=0.0371.","Log loss: 0.7020 (skill: -329.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.297","High luck component: 78/100 — returns may not persist","Brier Skill Score: -511.6% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Net loss: -$66101 total PnL","Low win rate: 4%","young_wallet: Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)"],"greenFlags":["Well-diversified: 485 unique markets","On-chain: human-like trading patterns"],"scoredAt":"2026-07-01T12:51:47.066Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":false,"ageFactor":0,"reason":"Wallet is only 0 days old — force-INS (threshold 30d)","ageDaysUsed":0}}