{"wallet":"0x84ad9c5c547a82ec9a08547b94bd922446e5bfb7","displayName":"BillBenter2026","pseudonym":"Happy-Go-Lucky-Min","raw":{"totalTrades":3100,"totalVolume":42698.07,"totalPnl":-1307627,"realizedPnl":0,"unrealizedPnl":-1307627,"winRate":0.008,"openPositions":38,"resolvedBets":962,"uniqueMarkets":42},"calibration":16,"profitability":0,"consistency":100,"discipline":97,"sampleSize":100,"liveEdge":52,"trustScore":44,"trustGrade":"D","trustTier":"RISKY","confidence":{"level":"high","margin":3,"resolvedBets":962,"description":"D/44 [CI95: D→D, 43-44] (962 resolved bets)","ci95":{"scoreLow":43,"scoreHigh":44,"gradeLow":"D","gradeHigh":"D","iterations":1000,"insufficientData":false}},"calibrationReport":{"buckets":[{"range":"0.00-0.10","midpoint":0.07742272727272728,"totalBets":132,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.07742272727272728,"error":0.07742272727272728},{"range":"0.10-0.20","midpoint":0.14677352941176466,"totalBets":204,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.14677352941176466,"error":0.14677352941176466},{"range":"0.20-0.30","midpoint":0.2512143939393941,"totalBets":264,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.007575757575757576,"expectedRate":0.2512143939393941,"error":0.24363863636363653},{"range":"0.30-0.40","midpoint":0.34074193548387066,"totalBets":124,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.016129032258064516,"expectedRate":0.34074193548387066,"error":0.32461290322580616},{"range":"0.40-0.50","midpoint":0.4491142857142858,"totalBets":56,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.03571428571428571,"expectedRate":0.4491142857142858,"error":0.4134000000000001},{"range":"0.50-0.60","midpoint":0.5492909090909093,"totalBets":66,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.5492909090909093,"error":0.5492909090909093},{"range":"0.60-0.70","midpoint":0.649511111111111,"totalBets":54,"correctBets":2,"actualRate":0.037037037037037035,"expectedRate":0.649511111111111,"error":0.612474074074074},{"range":"0.70-0.80","midpoint":0.7510684210526316,"totalBets":38,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.7510684210526316,"error":0.7510684210526316},{"range":"0.80-0.90","midpoint":0.8383375,"totalBets":16,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.8383375,"error":0.8383375},{"range":"0.90-1.00","midpoint":0.94705,"totalBets":8,"correctBets":0,"actualRate":0,"expectedRate":0.94705,"error":0.94705}],"brierScore":0.137,"calibrationError":0.2981,"resolvedBets":962,"overconfidenceBias":0.2981,"skillDecomposition":{"skill":24.3,"luck":13,"edge":-78.15},"brierDecomposition":{"calibration":0.1284,"resolution":0.0001,"uncertainty":0.0082},"brierSkillScore":-15.6085,"logLoss":0.4414,"logLossSkill":-8.1739,"timeliness":{"avgDaysBeforeResolution":0,"earlyMoverPct":0,"timelinessScore":0}},"onChain":{"verified":true,"provenance":{"wallet":"0x84ad9c5c547a82ec9a08547b94bd922446e5bfb7","chainId":137,"firstTxTimestamp":1775565609,"firstTxDate":"2026-04-07","walletAgeDays":69,"totalTransactions":2823,"uniqueCounterparties":58,"inboundTxCount":823,"outboundTxCount":0,"totalEthReceived":"0.000000","totalEthSent":"0.000000","netEthFlow":"0.000000","usdcTransfers":1999,"totalUsdcIn":100000,"totalUsdcOut":14348.6,"protocolsUsed":["USDC.e (Bridged)"],"uniqueContractsInteracted":3,"contractInteractions":823,"botScore":100,"washTradingScore":0,"topCounterpartyConcentration":0.04,"medianTxIntervalSec":2,"burstTxCount":602,"provenanceScore":73,"provenanceGrade":"B","flags":["Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction","Bot-like behavior detected: 602 burst txs, median interval 2s"],"greenFlags":["Heavy on-chain activity: 2823 txs","Diverse counterparties: 58 unique addresses","Significant USDC flow: $114,349","Diverse trading network: 58 counterparties"],"fetchedAt":"2026-06-15T17:26:25.772Z","dataSource":"basescan-v2"},"pnlDivergence":1393278.4,"pnlVerified":false},"polymarketCoverage":{"wallet":"0x84ad9c5c547a82ec9a08547b94bd922446e5bfb7","usdcInflowsFromPolymarket":0,"usdcOutflowsToPolymarket":0,"withdrawalTxCount":0,"largestWithdrawal":0,"firstPolymarketTxDate":"never","fetchedAt":"2026-06-15T17:53:13.548Z"},"reasoning":["On-chain verification: wallet age 69 days, 2823 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 100/100, wash trading score: 0/100.","Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.","3100 total trades across 42 markets.","962 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.","Calibration error: 29.8% — needs improvement.","Skill: 24/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 13/100 (higher = more volatile returns).","Brier Skill Score: -1560.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).","Brier decomposition: REL=0.1284 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0082.","Log loss: 0.4414 (skill: -817.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events."],"flags":["Overconfidence bias: 0.298","Brier Skill Score: -1560.8% — performing worse than naive baseline","Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions","Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected","Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address","Net loss: -$1307627 total PnL","Low win rate: 1%","PnL divergence: $1393278 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows","On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 100)"],"greenFlags":["Strong Brier score: 0.137","Well-diversified: 42 unique markets","On-chain: diverse counterparty network"],"scoredAt":"2026-06-15T17:53:18.448Z","dataSource":"polymarket-v1","disclaimer":"VIGIL Trust Score is informational only — not investment advice. Calibration scoring requires resolved markets and may not reflect recent performance.","antiSybil":{"eligibleForGrade":true,"ageFactor":0.26094893744767117,"reason":"Wallet age 69d → difficulty factor 0.26","ageDaysUsed":69}}